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28 Apr 2017 2:48
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  •   Home > News > International

    North Korea: Why military action will be a disaster and a patient solution is required

    Donald Trump's penchant for military posturing does little to increase the likelihood of denuclearising North Korea, or improving human rights outcomes for its citizens.


    Pundits often cite the North Korean regime's crimes against its citizens as proof of Kim Jong-un's irrationality as a leader.

    These crimes, as by former High Court justice Michael Kirby for the UN Human Rights Council, are monstrous and inexcusable.

    Grave as they are, they do follow a discernible logic from the perspective of Mr Kim's efforts to consolidate his regime's hold on power.

    Perversely, US President Donald Trump's sabre-rattling plays into Mr Kim's logic of domestic power that positions the US as a grave threat, justifying the regime's political repression.

    William Perry, US undersecretary of state during the Clinton administration, has contended that Mr Trump's military brinkmanship increases the likelihood of coercing North Korea back to denuclearisation negotiations, on the grounds that a heightened threat of American attack will prompt Mr Kim to recalculate the benefits of continued nuclear proliferation.

    But this is only credible if Mr Trump intends following through on the threat, which now appears more questionable given the of the USS Carl Vinson.



    Having established the foolishness of attacking North Korea , I'd now like to prompt discussion on a couple of points.

    The first is how "irrational Kim" rhetoric limits our ability to understand the complexity of the crisis in North Korea, creating risks that perversely would compromise human rights and humanitarian goals.

    The second is to explore other options for improving human rights and humanitarian outcomes for North Koreans beyond the threat and application of military force.

    There is much emotion in debates over North Korea, and rightly so.

    There is much suffering and trauma experienced by many persecuted North Korean citizens, as well as the lingering anguish of the Korean War and the separation of families by the partition of Korea.

    This is precisely why analysts need to carefully weigh up the risks and rewards of policy choices: to do justice to that suffering and to make sure we do not recommend misadventures that could add further misery to the North Korean people.

    First, don't make things worse

    As we consider the risks to civilians posed by a war of regime change, it is difficult to mount a case for war as a vehicle for improving for the North Korean people.

    The discourse on human rights in North Korea has long been framed through the lens of national security.

    Policy issues become "" when proponents of an issue area frame it as an existential security threat, of high priority, that requires extraordinary measures and rapid action to tackle.

    Because such issues become framed in the language of security, military-based solutions often come to dominate policy prescriptions.

    The "crazy Kim" argument has been central to the security rhetoric around human rights in North Korea, locking possible solutions into a narrow spectrum focused on military force and coercion.

    Just as doctors observe the to "first do no harm", so too should foreign-policymakers be wary of strategic choices that carry a high risk of making things worse.



    Many Korea analysts have pointed to the vulnerability of Seoul and the risk to millions of South Koreans posed by a cascading escalation of US military action into full-scale war.

    That risk also applies to people living in population centres north of the demilitarised zone.

    As the Iraq example again illustrates, removing a dictator in a war of regime change is not a guarantee that human rights and humanitarian outcomes will improve.

    According to the , 119,915 Iraqi deaths were verifiably attributed to the conflict in that country from 2003 to 2011.

    Another study put the death toll at half-a-million Iraqi civilians.

    Either way, this death toll and suffering escalated well beyond the scale of human rights abuses and deaths that occurred under Saddam Hussein's regime.

    This is not to downplay the suffering of those persecuted under Hussein, but to recognise that the invasion of Iraq made a bad situation worse.



    Could we see similar casualty numbers in a war in North Korea?

    North Korea is an urbanised country, with approximately 60 per cent of people .

    In the event of full-scale escalation, air strikes are likely to target critical infrastructure in an effort to weaken the fighting and logistical capacity of the Kim regime.

    Many of these targets will be in urban centres, exposing civilians to attack.

    We should be mindful of the humanitarian cost of the damage of war to the North Korean economy, industry, agriculture and key infrastructure.

    Targeting of critical energy, transportation and sanitation infrastructure will no doubt weaken North Korea's fighting capacity, but also eliminate those critical services for civilians.

    Food production and distribution networks are likely to be disrupted.

    For a country that is already chronically food insecure, any damage to food production and distribution systems will have immediate impacts on increasing malnutrition and starvation.

    Consider that estimates of deaths from North Korea's "Arduous March" famine in the mid-1990s sit at after the collapse of North Korea's food production and distribution system.

    The elimination of services for civilians is likely to increase the risk of non-combat casualties from malnutrition, disease and the elements, particularly during North Korea's harsh winter.

    If such a war ends quickly and an occupation force arrives in North Korea to restore security, casualty figures will be still be high — but some of the longer-term impacts of human insecurity might be avoided.

    However, in the event that the post-regime environment is unstable, then casualty figures for North Koreans on a scale similar to the Iraq experience become more likely.

    Creating an environment for positive human rights outcomes

    Removing Kim Jong-un as the head of the regime does not automatically translate into a win for human rights.

    A lot of post-conflict nation-building has to take place if a war scenario is to transcend the immediate humanitarian disaster and create an environment in which human rights for the North Korean people can be improved.

    Human rights are best guaranteed by stable governance, strong political institutions, legal protections, active civil society, and broad material wellbeing.

    A post-conflict North Korea in which the Kim regime has been removed would effectively be a failed state. None of these facilitating conditions for human rights guarantees would yet exist.

    It takes time and resources to .

    It requires many years of patient networking, conversation and compromise to develop a social movement that could evolve into an active civil society.

    It takes even longer to cultivate a political culture in which the citizenry respects the integrity of the political system, even when their faction is not in power.

    Without this social infrastructure, Kim Jong-un's removal is likely to lead to the disintegration of North Korea into a failed state, paving the way for the emergence of another authoritarian strongman.



    In , it took more than 40 years after the conclusion of the Korean War, an ongoing American military occupation, and the development of a broad-based pro-democracy movement, for an imperfect democratic political system to evolve.

    To suggest that this process could be circumvented in the North Korean case does not accord with the findings of research into democratisation and social movements.

    These norms, rules and institutions should ideally be developed by the North Korean people over time, not impatiently imposed from outside by other powers.

    It is doubtful that Trump — and, more importantly, his — has the stomach for the massive long-term, high-cost commitment that nation-building in a post-Kim North Korea would entail.

    Where to from here?

    One could be forgiven for observing the

    ABC




    © 2017 ABC Australian Broadcasting Corporation. All rights reserved


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