When the living dead invade Havana, the wiry protagonist of Cuban zombie spoof Juan of the Dead declares: "I'm a survivor. I survived Mariel, I survived Angola, I survived the special period and this thing that came after."
The 2011 film's satirical conceit was that decades of communist rule and economic hardship was indistinguishable from a zombie apocalypse.
Juan mentions defining moments in Cuba's recent history: the 1980 Mariel boatlift where tens of thousands of disaffected Cubans left; the traumas inflicted on Cuban soldiers sent to fight in the Angolan civil war; and the economic crisis known as the "special period" which followed the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1990s.
But "this thing that came after"? It's hard to know what the film's protagonist would make of Cuba in 2026. In the years since the film's release, living conditions have arguably deteriorated.
Blackouts caused by a dwindling supply of fossil fuels and aging infrastructure have plagued the island. Basic goods are either unavailable or too expensive for many, and since 2021 — a year when rare public demonstrations decrying economic conditions and the government's COVID response erupted — Cuba has experienced a mass exodus. One Cuban demographer estimates a drastic population reduction has taken place, the likes of which are usually only seen in the context of armed conflict.
This was the situation before the US captured Venezuela's president on January 3 — killing 32 Cuban security officials in the process. Before Trump vowed to prevent Venezuelan oil and money from entering Cuba and said the country should "make a deal before it's too late".
Many experts are now predicting life in Cuba is about to get even harder.
'Rock bottom'
Cuban economist Omar Everleny Perez, who lives in Havana, said the country was "at rock bottom". "People in Cuba are just surviving," said Perez, ex-director of Havana University's Centre for Studies of the Cuban Economy, currently with Cuba's Christian Centre for Reflexion and Dialogue.
A tray of 30 eggs now costs about the same as the monthly pension, he said. "The population's purchasing power is almost zero," he said, adding that "la libreta", the government-issued ration book which subsidises basic goods, "had almost zero product". A far cry from the days when the ration book, a key part of Cuba's socialist system, subsidised delicacies like chocolate and beer.
One Cuban living in Australia, who preferred to remain anonymous when criticising conditions in Cuba, said his family's circumstances on the island were difficult.
Like many Cubans living overseas he tried to support his family financially but said food and medication could be difficult to find even if one had the money to buy it. He said the economic crisis meant the streets weren't as safe as they once were, and he worried a sense of hopelessness was taking hold of Cuba's youth. He wasn't sure what the impact of Trump's threats would be, but said he hoped that "like always, Cubans find a way to survive".
Perez said the economic situation had worsened in recent years because of declines in key industries like tourism and sugar production. A recent outbreak of mosquito-borne diseases had only added to what Perez is now calling a "poly-crisis". And even before Maduro was kidnapped, Venezuela's provision of raw product was declining, he said.
Venezuela had been one of Cuba's closest allies since Hugo Chavez came to power in 1999. Helping the country recover from the special period and providing oil in exchange for the services of Cuban doctors and nurses. When Chavez died, Fidel Castro said Cuba had lost "the best friend the Cuban people had in their history".
'Ready to fall'
Cuba expert Prof William LeoGrande wrote "the blow to Cuba's economy will be devastating" if Trump's threats to stop Venezuelan oil eventuate.
While Mexico has already overtaken Venezuela as Cuba's main supplier, replacing the oil Cuba gets from Venezuela "would be a Herculean task", according to LeoGrande.
Yet he was sceptical this would collapse Cuba's government: "Washington officials have been predicting the imminent end of the Cuban government since 1959."
In the wake of the US's military operation in Venezuela, Trump was asked if further military interventions in Latin America were on the horizon. He said Cuba "looked ready to fall" without the hand of the US military. (A CIA assessment outlining Cuba's grim economic and political situation offered no clear support for Trump’s confident prediction.)
Cuba's president Miguel Díaz-Canel was defiant. "Cuba is a free, independent, and sovereign nation. Nobody dictates what we do," he said on X after Trump's threats. "Cuba does not attack; it has been attacked by the US for 66 years, and it does not threaten; it prepares, ready to defend the homeland to the last drop of blood."
LeoGrande told ABC that the theory of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio — himself the child of Cuban immigrants — had always been that by cutting off Venezuelan oil shipments "Cuba will collapse of its own weight".
"It's a kind of domino theory, you cut off the oil to Cuba, the Cuban economy sinks even further, but there's a certain amount of magical thinking that this is somehow going to bring down the Cuban government and somehow establish a new one."
Wandering among Havana's crumbling buildings, UK-based academics Anna Grimaldi and Eleonora Natale assessed the mood on the street this week: "No one seems particularly troubled by the possibility that the US attack on Caracas might be repeated here."
After all, Cubans have lived under six decades of US threats and sanctions. "There is little sign that Cubans are waiting for Trump's help," wrote Grimaldi and Natale in The Conversation. "But they do expect their lives to grow harder."
"If Donald Trump doesn't let fuel into Cuba, we'll be in the dark with our kids suffering," Deyanira Gonzalez, who lives near Havana told Reuters this week. The 57-year-old said she was already cooking with charcoal because electricity was patchy, and gas was too expensive.
"It's the uncertainty of not knowing what's going to happen," Ivet Rodriguez told Reuters. "I try not to even think about it."
