Russia's version of Iran's fast, cheap Shahed attack drones have been wreaking havoc during the Ukraine conflict, saturating the skies nearly every night and terrorising civilians.
Highly adaptive and hard to intercept, the United States witnessed how the long-range exploding drones profoundly reshaped the Ukraine war. So they got hold of one and reverse-engineered it.
The Pentagon did not attempt to hide that its new Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS) drone was based on the Iranian Shahed-136 when it was unveiled last year.
The US Air Force had released a request for information seeking to develop "a 1:1 copy" of the so-called kamikaze drone.
US officials even told CNN and defence publication The War Zone that a LUCAS squadron was deployed to the Middle East in December "to flip the script on Iran".
It appears the US likely used its Shahed replica for the first time in combat during an operation to seize Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro earlier this month, according to drone experts.
Now, US President Donald Trump has been threatening to use force against Iran over the regime's massacre of anti-government protesters.
US-based human rights monitor HRANA has confirmed 5,002 people have been killed, and 9,787 additional deaths are under investigation.
With Mr Trump building up military assets in the region, defence analysts say it is only a matter of time before the US uses Iran's drone technology against them.
Why the US wanted the Shahed
The high-pitched thrum of the Shahed drone's engine has become a hallmark of the Ukraine conflict.
The UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) have been widely used by Russia to unleash relentless assaults on Ukrainian cities.
"It doesn't matter if an individual Shahed hits its target. What matters is the compound effect the terror weapon has on civilians and the stress it places on air defences," analysts from the US Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote.
Unlike traditional drones that fly on a mission and return home, the drones were designed as ammunition, diving into targets with an explosive warhead.
Originally imported from Iran, Russia now mass produces its own "Geran" version, churning out nearly 3,000 a month, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
With a price range of $US20,000 to $50,000 ($29,700 to $73,000), the drones are exponentially cheaper than the missiles required to shoot them down, which can cost upwards of $US1 million.
The long-range weapons are also particularly difficult to defend against when launched in large volumes.
Hundreds are being launched in a single attack, with European intelligence officials and analysts estimating bombardments could reach more than 2,000 drones.
Mr Trump spoke about the need for the US to develop a Shahed equivalent at a business roundtable in Qatar early last year.
"I want a lot of drones, and in the case of Iran, they make a good drone, and they make them for $35,000, $40,000," he said.
"They're very good, too, and fast and deadly, horrible, actually, when you look at what's happening with Russia and Ukraine."
Iran has also deployed the weapons directly in strikes against Israel, including an attack in April 2024 that included about 150.
UNSW senior lecturer in aviation Oleksandra Molloy, an expert in drone warfare in Ukraine, said the Shahed's capabilities were constantly evolving.
"They are particularly interesting types of drones because they are continuously increasing in speed and being used for different missions, including as decoys," Dr Molloy told the ABC.
"Now we see the US is moving toward these systems, realising the mass effect and cost-effectiveness compared to the drones the US was traditionally investing in."
US low-cost attack drones in action
Also referred to by the manufacturer SpektreWorks as the FLM 136, the US LUCAS drones share many of the specifications of the Shahed 136.
Dr Molloy said the drones also shared the same delta-wing look and long-range one-way mission profile, but the SpektreWorks versions would be built with US standards and components.
In December, the Pentagon announced it had deployed the US military's first one-way-attack drone squadron to the Middle East.
Soon after, the US Navy recorded a "milestone", saying the LUCAS drones had been "successfully launched" from a ship at sea for the first time.
Defence analysts and drone experts say it appears the US may have taken the next step, launching its LUCAS drones as part of its recent strikes on Venezuela.
The same distinctive sounds made by Shahed-type drones — nicknamed "flying mopeds" — were heard in various videos that came out of Caracas.
"Certain UAV construction results in specific drone sound signatures while in flight," Samuel Bendett, an expert on drones and other weapons at the US Center for Naval Analysis, told the ABC.
"It's highly likely that the sound being recorded and shared on social media belongs to this new US drone."
The US said the military operation to oust the Venezuelan president involved bombers, drones, aircraft carriers, and amphibious assault ships.
The Pentagon and US Special Operations Command would not provide comment on the use of LUCAS drones in Venezuela.
"Although there is no confirmed information by the US officials, videos and witness evidence from Caracas describe the drones as 'Shahed-like,'" Dr Molloy said.
"It sounds like propeller-driven loitering munitions. And based on the flight profiles and acoustic signatures, it is a one-way attack loitering munition."
Dr Molloy said the use of the drones was significant for the US, providing an additional component "that creates new strategies in achieving their missions".
She suggested that in Venezuela, the weapons could have been used to help deter air defences, forcing missile systems to shoot at the cheap drones rather than advanced US aircraft.
"It seems like they had a potentially positive first combat experience … which means that they are likely to continue using those and delivering those effects within their capabilities in theatre," Dr Molloy said.
US sends 'armada' to Iran
After it appeared that US strikes on Iran last weekend were imminent, Mr Trump eased his rhetoric.
He had been warning of military intervention amid a deadly crackdown on nationwide anti-government protests that started on December 28.
Estimates on the death toll vary. Mai Sato, special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran, said at least 5,000 civilians had been killed by the regime.
But she told the ABC that doctors inside Iran were reporting civilian deaths could be more than 20,000.
Mr Trump has continued to call for an end to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's nearly 40-year reign, and has begun building up US military assets in the region.
US warships, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, several destroyers and fighter aircraft, started moving from the Asia-Pacific last week and will arrive in the Middle East region in the coming days, according to a Reuters report citing two US officials.
Mr Trump on Thursday, local time, said there was a "big force" going toward Iran, and he was watching the country "very closely".
"We have an armada … heading in that direction, and maybe we won't have to use it," he said.
If the US did launch air strikes on Iran, Brandon Weichert, senior national security editor at The National Interest, said it was likely the new LUCAS drones would be used.
"The United States is absolutely looking at a situation where it will soon be deploying cribbed versions of Iran's Shahed drones against the Iranians," Mr Weichert told the ABC.
"I suspect, given events on the ground in Iran, that they will be deployed sooner rather than later."
Mr Weichert was surprised that the US so openly copied the Iranian drone technology.
"The United States had, on some level, fallen behind Iran in the drone development business … they are now having to play catch-up by reverse-engineering more advanced Iranian drones," he said.
"It means that whenever the next big, direct war America involves itself in, these Iranian-based drones will be used in important ways."
Last week, a string of Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Qatar, Oman and Egypt urged the Trump administration to hold off on strikes against Iran.
Reports by Axios and The New York Times cited US officials saying Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also warned Mr Trump that Israel was not prepared for Iranian retaliation.
Mr Weichert said one thing Iranian Shahed development had shown was that "underestimating Iran in certain key tactical areas is a dangerous assumption".
"Clearly, they have some capabilities that could pose grave threats to US and allied forces in the region, if Tehran decided to go full bore against their perceived enemies in Israel and the wider region."
