Starmer’s move on Palestinian statehood is clever politics

Keir Starmer has announced that the UK will recognise Palestinian statehood by September 2025 unless Israel meets certain conditions, marking a significant shift in UK policy.

For decades, successive UK governments withheld recognition, insisting it could only come as part of a negotiated settlement between Israel and Palestine. This position, rooted in the Oslo accords of the 1990s and aligned with US policy, effectively gave Israel a veto over Palestinian statehood. As long as Israel refused to engage seriously in peace talks, the UK refrained from acting.

Starmer has now broken with this precedent, potentially aligning the UK with 147 other countries. But the Israeli government must take what the UK calls “substantive steps” toward peace. These include agreeing to a ceasefire in Gaza, allowing full humanitarian access, explicitly rejecting any plans to annex West Bank territory, and returning to a credible peace process aimed at establishing a two-state solution.

Read more: UK to recognise Palestinian statehood unless Israel agrees to ceasefire – here's what that would mean

If Israel meets these conditions, the UK would presumably withhold recognition until the “peace process” has been completed. Starmer made clear that Britain will assess Israeli compliance in September and reserves the right to proceed with recognition regardless of Israel’s response. The message was unambiguous: no one side will have a veto.

This is more than just clever internal politics and party management. Anything that puts any pressure on Israel to move towards peace should be welcomed. But will it amount to much more than that?

Starmer has faced criticism over the last few years for resisting recognising Palestine as a state. While Labour’s frontbench held the line for much of the past year, rank-and-file discontent has grown – and with it, the political risks.

At the heart of Labour’s internal tensions lie two irreconcilable blocs. On one side are MPs and activists – both inside the party and expelled from it – who are vocally pro-Palestinian and have been outraged by the government’s failure to act. On the other side are members of the Labour right who continue to back Israel, oppose unilateral recognition of statehood and focus on the terrible crimes of Hamas but not the IDF campaign in Gaza.

Between them sits a soft-centre majority, for whom foreign policy is not a defining issue. They are not ideologically committed to either side but have become increasingly uneasy with the escalating violence and the UK’s diplomatic inertia.

As the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza deepens, public outrage in the UK has grown. Mass protests have put mounting pressure on the government to act. Within parliament, over 200 MPs, including many from Labour, signed a letter demanding immediate recognition of Palestine. Senior cabinet ministers reportedly pushed hard for the shift on electoral grounds, as well as principle.

International dynamics have also played a crucial role. France’s announcement that it would recognise Palestine by September, becoming the first major western power to do so, created additional pressure. Spain, Ireland, Norway and several other European states have already taken the step. Britain chose to align itself with this emerging consensus.

These pressures combined created a sense of urgency and political opportunity. Starmer’s government appears to be using the threat of recognition as leverage –pressuring Israel to return to negotiations and halt annexation plans.

The calculation seems to be that Israel will either meet the UK’s conditions or face diplomatic consequences, including recognition of Palestine without its consent. There is also the possibility that Israel will simply ignore the UK and press on with its campaign for “Greater Israel”.

Challenges ahead

That is why, while this is a meaningful departure from the past, it is not without problems. Chief among them is the principle of conditionality itself. By making recognition contingent on Israeli behaviour, the UK risks reinforcing the very logic it claims to be rejecting – that Palestinian rights can be granted or withheld based on the actions of the occupying power.

Recognition of statehood should not be used as a diplomatic carrot or stick. It is a matter of justice, not reward. Palestinians are entitled to self-determination under international law.

There is also concern that the September deadline could become another missed opportunity. If Israel makes vague or symbolic gestures – such as issuing carefully worded statements or temporarily suspending one settlement expansion – will the UK delay recognition further, claiming that “progress” is being made?

Palestinians have seen such tactics before. Recognition has been delayed for decades in the name of preserving leverage. But leverage for what?

The Israeli government, dominated by ultra-nationalists and pro-annexation hardliners, is unlikely to satisfy the UK’s conditions in good faith. The risk is that the deadline becomes a mirage – always imminent, never reached.

Recognition also comes as part of a proposed new peace plan. This will be supported by the UK, France and Germany, and it allows the government to say it is being consist with its policy that recognition is part of a peace plan.

If, by some miracle, pressure works and Israel meets all the conditions, then the UK can claim that recognition has played a role in bringing Israel back to the negotiating table.

But if recognition is then withheld, there will not be two equal actors at that table. The State of Palestine will not have been recognised by key international players, and a new round of western-run peace processes will begin. These do not have a good track record.

If Israel fails to agree to a ceasefire and let aid into Gaza, then Starmer will be forced to go through with recognition.

For now, he has defused the internal division in his party. It is clever politics, good party management – it remains to be seen if it is also statesmanship.

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Brian Brivati is affiliated with Britain Palestine Project, a Scottish Charity that campaigns for equal rights, justice and security for Israelis and Palestiniains