Global emissions are starting to fall on account of the worldwide commitment to fight climate change, although still not nearly fast enough, analysis by the United Nations has found.
A synthesis report released on Tuesday by the UN's Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) suggests the national climate targets adopted under the Paris Agreement will cause greenhouse gas emissions to drop by 10 per cent by 2035.
"The whole-of-economy, whole-of-society approaches … point to strong climate action as an increasingly core pillar of ensuring economic stability and growth, jobs, health, and energy security and affordability, among many other policy imperatives, in countries," it said.
"However, it remains clear that major acceleration is still needed in terms of delivering faster and deeper emission reductions and ensuring that the vast benefits of strong climate action reach all countries and peoples."
It is the first time the body has forecast a steady decline in global emissions — a sign the commitments made under the Paris Accords are bearing fruit — but the UN says just 64 of the 195 countries signed to the treaty have submitted their climate goals, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), making the report limited in scope.
To widen its scope, the UNFCCC's analysis incorporated climate pledges from parties such as the European Union, United States and China — the biggest sources of CO2 emissions — but it still leaves room for uncertainties given neither of those governments have formalised those commitments.
"Through UN-convened climate cooperation and national efforts, humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough," said Simon Steill, head of the UNFCCC.
"So while the direction of travel is improving every year, we have a serious need for more speed, and for helping more countries take stronger climate actions."
While the UN's 10 per cent projection marks progress, it is far short of the nearly 60 per cent emissions decline needed by 2035 to bring global warming down to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — the centrepiece temperature target of the Paris Agreement, beyond which scientists say forestalling the most severe impacts of climate change would be impossible.
Climate action plans from six of top 10 emitters overdue
Countries that have submitted their 2035 NDC targets include G20 members Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada, Brazil, Japan, Indonesia, Russia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Morocco, South Africa, as well as Switzerland, Norway, Nepal and the UAE.
Announced in September, Australia's target of cutting emissions by 62 to 70 per cent was criticised by climate groups as "timid, weak, and a failure".
The US also made a submission in 2024 but its emissions trajectory has become precarious under the presidency of Donald Trump, who withdrew America from the Paris deal this year, like in his first term.
China, the world's biggest emitter by a long shot, and other key contributors such as India, Iran and EU are yet to table their 2035 emission reduction plans.
| Top 10 emitters | Contribution to total global carbon emissions | Status of 2035 NDC targets submission |
| China | 33.98% | Not submitted |
| United States | 12.0% | Submitted |
| India | 7.57% | Not submitted |
| Russia | 5.3% | Submitted |
| Japan | 2.42% | Submitted |
| Iran | 2.0% | Not submitted |
| Indonesia | 1.73% | Submitted |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.6% | Not submitted |
| Germany | 1.49% | Not submitted |
| South Korea | 1.47% | Not submitted |
| Source: Climate Action Tracker and World Population Review |
China's carbon footprint accounts for more than 30 per cent of annual global emissions. Last month Beijing, for the first time, committed to cutting them by 7 to 10 per cent from their peak by 2035 but the target is widely being viewed as an under-commitment.
"The Chinese government is often characterised as wanting to announce goals that it is confident of achieving and preferring to under-announce and over-deliver," analysts from the Center for Strategic & International Studies said.
"However, it has struggled with some goals, most notably the carbon intensity reduction targets announced in 2020, in part because of the economic disruption following the COVID-19 pandemic.
"Many advocates had hoped for more of a 'stretch' goal that would encourage stretch goals from other developing countries, especially at a time when the United States has been stepping back from its climate commitments."
The UNFCCC analysis comes weeks ahead of the COP30 climate change conference in Brazil which this year will be held 10 years after the creation of the Paris Agreement.
While the summit does not have a "theme" unlike previous years, its focus will be on formulating new approaches to issues such as scaling up climate financing for developing nations and deforestation.
The Climate Action Network (CAN) has called for the leaders of developed and G20 countries to use the summit to develop three specific policies: set a clear timeline for a fossil fuel phase-out, outline contributions to global energy efficiency goals, and embed "just" transition measures grounded in human rights and equity.
"The richest countries on Earth — those who built their wealth on fossil fuels — are still refusing to take responsibility for the damage they've caused," CAN International executive director Tasneem Essop said.
"Without credible timelines, without money on the table, and without protection for workers and communities, these NDCs are a betrayal of 1.5°C — and of the people already living with the impacts of climate disaster."
