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16 Sep 2024 20:02
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  •   Home > News > International

    Vladimir Putin defied a war crimes arrest order to visit Mongolia. Here's what he might be up to

    Living in Russia's shadow, Mongolia is not in a position to put President Vladimir Putin offside. But when he came to visit, the nation's obligations to the International Criminal Court were put into stark relief.


    Since arriving in Mongolia less than 24 hours ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin's feet have rarely touched anything but red carpet. 

    As his war on Ukraine rages on more than 7,000 kilometres away, Mr Putin is taking part in commemorations of the 85th anniversary of a joint Mongolian-Soviet victory against the Japanese at the Khalkhin Gol River.

    Alongside Mongolia's president Khürelsükh Ukhnaa, Mr Putin stood on a carpeted podium in front of a formal military guard, dwarfed by the statue of Mongolia's warrior ruler Chinggis Khan behind them in the grand Sukhbaatar square in central Ulaanbaatar

    Then they climbed the government house steps as a huge Russian flag flew to their left and a Mongolian flag flew to their right. 

    Ahead of the commemorations, a state honour guard dressed in traditional armour filed down the city's famously traffic-heavy streets on horseback.

    While Mr Putin has travelled to several countries since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Mongolia is the first that is a member of the International Criminal Court.

    That means it's obliged to arrest Mr Putin, under an arrest warrant issued 18 months ago accusing him of war crimes for allowing Ukrainian children to be transported to Russia.

    But when Mr Putin arrived late on Monday night, he was received by the country's Foreign Minister Batmunkh Battsetseg, who walked him down a red carpet trimmed with gold and flanked by a military guard clad in red and blue formal uniforms.

    "To the extent that he can be in a country that is an ICC member state that does not arrest him, the image that that would project is that Russia doesn't really care about ICC and ICC doesn't actually matter," said Sergey Radchenko from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

    "So that is perhaps a part of his calculation."

    Considering the Mongolian leader issued the invitation it was nearly impossible to believe any such arrest would happen – in fact Bloomberg reported Mr Putin was given assurances he wouldn't be arrested while visiting. 

    "We have an excellent rapport with our partners from Mongolia," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in Moscow.

    "All aspects of the president's visit have been carefully prepared."

    Ukraine called on Mongolia to arrest Mr Putin and Human Rights Watch and the European Union did the same.

    "The Ukrainian side hopes that the government of Mongolia is aware of the fact that Vladimir Putin is a war criminal," the Ukrainian foreign ministry said in a statement.

    "The kidnapping of Ukrainian children is only one of the many crimes for which Putin and the rest of the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation must face justice."

    Why Mongolia did not arrest Putin 

    The ICC cannot try people in absentia and relies on its 124 member-states to take accused into custody.

    "It would be truly astonishing if Mongolia were to sacrifice the advantages of continued good relations with Russia in that way," says Jenny Mathers from Aberystwyth University's department of international politics.

    "On the day after the arrest, it would still share a long border with Russia and have to deal with the consequences of turning the Russian leader over to the ICC.

    "What would the ICC or indeed the West be able to offer Mongolia in compensation that would make it worthwhile?"

    Completely landlocked between Russia and China, Mongolia imports nearly all of its fuel and about 20 per cent of its electricity from Russia.

    While it has been seeking to shore up a broader variety of relationships through its third neighbour policy, it has been allied to its gargantuan neighbour for decades and in 2019 elevated the relationship.

    "This upgrade aimed to enhance Russian investment in Mongolia, particularly in energy and infrastructure, while also promoting cultural ties," says Christopher Bluth from the University of Bradford.

    "The Ukraine war is a difficult issue for Mongolia as it is an ally of Russia but also a democratic country dependent on the West and Mongolia has a strategic partnership with the United States."

    Mongolia has so far abstained from UN votes condemning the Ukraine war.

    Mr Putin attended a meeting of the BRICS Summit in South Africa virtually, as it is a member of the ICC as well – further suggesting he wouldn't be risking a trip to Mongolia without assurances.

    Professor Radchenko says Mongolia has been careful not to violate sanctions on Russia and has tried to take a neutral approach on its war on Ukraine.

    "And it expects everybody to understand that given that it's a landlocked country heavily dependent on Russia, it cannot actually behave otherwise," he told the ABC.

    "It cannot stick a finger up to the Russians and say 'now we'll be against you', because Mongolia's very life depends on having a good relationship with Russia."

    What does Putin want with Mongolia? 

    On Monday, there was a small protest outside Government House in Ulaanbaatar.

    The government building had a huge Russian flag hanging alongside the Mongolian flag ahead of Tuesday's celebrations, and in front of it protesters waved Ukrainian flags and held a sign saying: "Get war criminal Putin out of here."

    But on Tuesday morning, a police cordon was constructed hours before any official events began and there was a heavy police presence.

    There have been protests against the Ukraine war outside the Russian embassy in the past, but it's hard to generalise the attitude of everyday Mongolian people towards their neighbour.

    However, Munkhnaran Bayarlkhagva, an independent geopolitical analyst in Ulaanbaatar who used to work at the National Security Council of Mongolia, says there is a grim mood in the city.

    "Very humiliated for the general public, because nobody with the sane mind likes to have a war criminal visiting against the International Court of Justice criminal courts warrant," he says.

    "But at the same time, the vast majority of the population realises that this is something that we have to just do once every five years, and whether we like it or not, this is a some sort of performance where Mongolian government is doing its best to manage its relations with Kremlin, and the way it does that is to talking to Putin himself.

    "Unless we talk to Putin himself, and unless we manage Putin himself, then there might be space for other more threatening voices to come forward and threaten Mongolia in some way."

    Before the official proceedings began on Tuesday, a small group of anti-war activists was arrested as they tried to wave a Ukrainian flag.

    Mr Putin was also set to meet with Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene and the speaker of the parliament, called the State Great Khural, Dashzegve Amarbayasgalan.

    A Kremlin statement said Mr Putin and Mongolia's president would discuss further developing relations between the two countries and "exchange views on current international and regional issues".

    But a key point of discussion will no doubt be the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline that will carry Russian gas to China through Mongolia, and is seen as crucial to compensate for the losses incurred by Russia's isolation from its European customers.

    Moscow and Beijing are reportedly in disagreement over how much China will pay for the gas, while the South China Morning Post reported the project was left off Mongolia's most recent action program.

    Discussions about a Russian company upgrading Mongolia's Soviet-era No. 3 power plant are also expected to be on the agenda.

    "The main goal of this visit is to perform the regular performance of joint friendly relations, but everything else is secondary," Mr Bayarlkhagva says.

    "Russia is going to get the contract to build a power plant in Ulaanbaatar, we're going to get an agreement that promises us a secure supply of fuel [and] petroleum products, and that's more or less it."

    © 2024 ABC Australian Broadcasting Corporation. All rights reserved

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