A landmark agreement to "transform" the relationship between Australia and Vanuatu will not be signed today, as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese flies to the Pacific Island nation for a closely watched visit.
The fate of the agreement now hangs in the balance, though it is unclear what is holding up the deal.
Last month, Defence Minister Richard Marles, Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Pacific Minister Pat Conroy all travelled to Vanuatu and trooped to the top of a volcano on the island of Tanna in a spectacular ceremony to mark the conclusion of negotiations on the Nakamal Agreement.
Under the agreement, the federal government is expected to pour about $500 million into Vanuatu over a decade to help fund some of its key climate, security and economic priorities — while entrenching Australia's position as the Pacific nation's main security and development partner.
Vanuatu's Prime Minister Jotham Napat has heaped praise on the pact and declared in the wake of the volcano ceremony that Mr Albanese would travel to Vanuatu "soon" or within "weeks" to jointly sign the agreement with him.
Mr Albanese is winging his way to Vanuatu this morning for a brief visit ahead of the Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting in Solomon Islands.
Yesterday the ABC revealed the signing may not go ahead, with both countries scrambling to resolve last minute disagreements.
Speaking on ABC Radio National, Mr Albanese would not pre-empt the discussions.
"I await the good faith discussions that take place today, but we have a good relationship," he said.
"Vanuatu politics can be very complicated, as I am sure you are aware.
"We're very confident we'll be able to progress that, but we want to enter into good faith discussions."
Mr Albanese said he did not expect the agreement to be signed today.
Earlier, a Vanuatu government representative said discussions were ongoing and that it was still possible the signing ceremony would go ahead — although they said the situation was "uncertain".
It's not clear exactly what the stumbling block is, but one Vanuatu government source said there was some "concern" in Mr Napat's coalition government around clauses in the agreement which might "limit engagement with other countries, especially [in] infrastructure agreements".
Vanuatu has borrowed heavily from China to fund key infrastructure projects, while Beijing's police teams in the country have also been playing an increasingly visible role on the ground.
One diplomatic source told the ABC that China had been pressing some of Mr Napat's ministers not to sign the agreement, although they said it wasn't clear whether Beijing's diplomats in the country had mounted a concerted campaign against the pact.
A spokesperson for the Prime Minister Anthony Albanese declined to comment on the negotiations ahead of his departure to Vanuatu.
In a statement released shortly before his trip, Mr Albanese said he would meet Mr Napat for talks, as well as calling on Vanuatu's President Nikenike Vurobaravu during his trip to Port Vila.
"I look forward to visiting Vanuatu to discuss further elevating the bilateral relationship between our countries," he said.
Diplomatic blow?
Adjunct Associate Professor at Griffith Asia Institute Tess Newton Cain, said that Mr Napat and his advisers "had been clear for some time that they are keen to maintain the maximum amount of flexibility in terms of which partners they work with in support of development needs including infrastructure".
She also said the final text of the agreement "would be closely scrutinised by Napat's opponents and in the Vanuatu context" and "…any apparent ceding of sovereignty could leave him open to attack from the opposition or even others within his government".
If the two countries can't reach an agreement on Tuesday it will be a significant diplomatic blow for Australia, although it won't be a death knell for the pact, with both countries expected to press on with negotiations.
It's not the first time the government has struggled to land an agreement with the Pacific island nation: Australia and Vanuatu started negotiations on the Nakamal Agreement after Vanuatu effectively buried an earlier 2022 security pact signed by Mr Napat's predecessor Ishmael Kalsakau.
Dr Newton Cain said that if the two prime ministers didn't sign the pact, Australia "would be at pains to portray this as part of a mutually beneficial process that is ongoing rather than a failure".
"But I expect it will rankle given all the twists and turns there have already been," she said.
Mihai Sora from the Lowy Institute said there was "no question that Australia is the more significant partner for Vanuatu's security and development, but this is about politics".
"Australia wants China out of policing and critical infrastructure in the Pacific. But it's easy to imagine individual MPs in Port Vila somewhat protective of relations with China, which they may perceive to be of personal benefit to them," he said.
"Mr Napat will be reluctant to sign a deal with Albanese if it costs him the backing of key domestic political supporters."
After his brief visit to Vanuatu, Mr Albanese will fly to Solomon Islands, joining Pacific leaders in the capital Honiara for two days of meetings.
On Wednesday, Pacific leaders are expected to endorse a treaty to establish a new climate finance fund called the Pacific Resilience Facility as well as a declaration for an "Ocean of Peace" championed by Fiji's Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka.
