An independent economist says New Zealand's in good shape to avoid a recession

There's concern a severe downturn is looming in the United States, with the yield curves briefly dipping below zero - a historical precursor to recession.

Cameron Bagrie says the Reserve Bank's still been cutting interest rates, and large Government spending has come at the right time.

He says New Zealand relies on the global economy, where there are always risks - like trade tensions between the US and China.

Bagrie says those risks were elevated in the middle of last year, but have since dissipated.