Watch out for those Eggs, Landlords
There's comforting and worrying news in a recent survey of property investors. Example: The majority have had at least six years experience in property, and 57 per cent have more than ten years.
29 May 2004
"These people have been through the economic cycle and were investors in the late 1990s, when returns from property were lean," says David Drage, economist with ANZ Bank, which carried out the survey with the NZ Property Investors Federation.
That's great. But it still leaves lots of newcomers. I hope they don't panic and bail out when the market slows down again.
And when I say "lots" I mean it. The Federation says there are about 300,000 landlords in New Zealand, "and that figure is expected to grow as the percentage of people owning their own home decreases."
Crunch a few numbers, and we find that about one in eight New Zealanders over 30 owns rental property.
What else does the survey tells us about them?
• They own an average of two to three properties.
That's good. People with just one rental are rather scarily undiversified. If things go badly - the neighbourhood deteriorates, tenants are scarce or are careless, or out of the blue the roof or the wiring or plumbing needs replacing - single-rental owners are hit hard.
Still, the average number of properties will be skewed upward by those who own half a dozen or more. There will still be many people with all their eggs in the one property, if you'll excuse a mixed metaphor!
• The majority own residential dwellings in the city in which they live.
This is convenient, and they can easily drive past to check if the roof is still on.
But we're back to the eggs, only this time they are all in one city. Property grows much faster in some cities than others.
• Almost two thirds of respondents bought property in the last 14 months, and about two thirds are actively looking to buy over the next 12 months.
Of course they're not expecting prices to continue to grow as fast as they have in the recent past. Or are they?
• A little more than three quarters have more than $100,000 of equity in their investment properties.
That gives a good buffer if the market goes egg-shaped.
But what about the others, with low equity? Here's hoping they're not forced to bail out in a down market. That's when savings disappear.
• Most landlords "prefer to undertake the majority of pre-purchase property analysis themselves."
That might be good. It depends on their knowledge base. I hope they've worked through a worst case scenario, when rents fall; mortgage interest rates rise; insurance and rates rise; they don’t have tenants for a couple of months; they urgently need to do expensive maintenance; and they lose their job or other source of income.
That's an extraordinarily gloomy list. But it's not uncommon for three or four of those things to happen at once.
• Very few property investors use property managers or maintenance services.
That’s fine, as long as they continue to have the health and the time to do the work.
OK, enough wet blankets. I'm not anti-rental property. But some people don’t fully appreciate its riskiness - or that they might have done better, with less work and worry, in alternative investments.
Still, Drage reports "a high level of confidence in the property market, despite predictions of a slowdown."
Most landlords seem happy with their investment. And, as long as they can weather any coming storms - or broken eggs - they will probably do at least reasonably well. And some will do brilliantly.
© 2024 Mary Holm, NZCity