Will Rodrigo Duterte be seen as a martyr – or a symbol of justice finally being carried out?

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is now in the custody of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Netherlands, to face charges of alleged crimes against humanity for his brutal war on drugs in the Philippines.

Duterte and his allies attempted to fight the arrest warrant and claimed his transfer to The Hague was an “illegal act”. Yet, the former strongman could now become the first Asian head of state to be tried by the ICC.

The news has left the Philippines reeling at a critical time for the country. Some of Duterte’s supporters have rallied behind him, while other Filipinos have remembered his dark legacy.

The country is also in the midst of intense campaigning for midterm elections in May that could be pivotal for the government of the current president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

Marcos had been allied with Duterte’s daughter, Sara, the country’s vice president, before they dramatically fell out last year after she publicly threatened to assassinate him. Sara Duterte was then impeached by the House of Representatives by Marcos’ allies in February.

Now, there are questions whether Marcos’ decision to sideline his chief rival and cooperate with Interpol’s arrest of her father could backfire in a country where the Dutertes still hold tremendous sway.

A long-simmering political feud

At stake in May’s election are over 18,000 national and local positions, including 12 seats in the 24-member Senate, 250 seats in the House of Representatives and 63 party-list representatives, as well as 82 governorships and other local government positions across the country.

The results will certainly have significant implications for the Philippines in the short term.

In the Senate, it could determine the outcome of Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial later this year. So far, eight of the Marcos administration’s candidates are likely to win, based on the latest polls. If at least two-thirds of the senators vote to convict Duterte, she will be ineligible to run for president herself in 2028 – or hold any public office.

Both Marcos and Sara Duterte have seen their public trust and approval ratings decline in recent months. Duterte’s ratings declined even further after her impeachment in the lower chamber, although she still enjoys high ratings in her home base of Mindanao.

These latest developments, however, have not stopped her from hinting at plans to run for president in 2028. She made these comments on a trip to Hong Kong over the weekend with her father, where they met with overseas Filipino supporters.

It remains to be seen whether the elder Duterte’s arrest and trial at the ICC would generate enough public sympathy for the family dynasty to boost Sara Duterte in both her impeachment trial and any future political races.

Some of the family’s die-hard supporters still view them as “underdogs” suffering from sustained political persecution by the Marcos administration. Social media posts by supporters have denounced the haste with which the government complied with the arrest warrant.

Sara Duterte will seek to rally these supporters even further as she travels to The Hague to stand by her father’s side. She has called his arrest an “affront to national sovereignty”.

A step towards ending the culture of impunity

Beyond the Marcos-Duterte rivalry, Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest and impending trial represents a sizeable moment for Filipinos at home and abroad. It shows that a former leader of the country can be held accountable for alleged crimes, no matter how popular they are or how much influence they wield.

New witnesses may surface who were reluctant to testify in trials related to Duterte-era killings in local courts. Some witnesses also refused to participate in the marathon hearings held by a House committee investigating drug-war killings.

This committee has said it would not cooperate with the ICC, as the Philippines withdrew from the court under Duterte’s rule in 2019. Nevertheless, its hearings can still be accessed by the ICC since they have all been posted online.

The ICC trial may also expose the weaknesses and inadequacies of the Philippine justice system, including the limitations of existing laws that are supposed to protect human rights, ensure the rule of law, and guarantee the accountability of government officials and law enforcers in the country.

Duterte’s trial may also persuade the Marcos administration to reconsider his predecessor’s decision to leave the ICC. (The court says it retains jurisdiction in the case against Duterte because the alleged crimes occurred when the Philippines was still a member.)

The arrest of the former strongman may not end the “culture of impunity” that has long existed in Filipino politics. Yet, it is an important milestone in building public awareness about the importance of upholding human rights protections.

It will also no doubt provide the many families of those killed during Duterte’s time in office a measure of relief.

Noel Morada has received funding from the Australian government for research on atrocities prevention.