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18 Oct 2025 12:20
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  •   Home > News > International

    Trump 'risking full-fledged war' against Venezuela as US military action escalates

    The US military has launched six strikes on Venezuelan vessels the Trump administration claims were involved in drugs trafficking, and some are warning the intervention is threatening to spark an all-out war.


    Tensions between the United States and Venezuela are escalating as Donald Trump ramps up military operations targeting the South American country.

    In Washington DC on Friday, local time, Mr Trump said he believed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro does not want to "f*** around" with the US amid the intensifying relations.

    Some are now warning the new phase of US intervention is threatening to spark an all-out war between the two countries.

    Here is what we know.

    A US military build-up and CIA spies in Venezuela

    The US military has now launched six separate strikes on vessels in the Caribbean Sea that the Trump administration alleges had been involved in trafficking illicit drugs.

    On Friday, Mr Trump said one of the strikes targeted what he said was a drug-carrying submarine in the Caribbean.

    Reuters reported that the US military was still holding at least two survivors from that strike aboard a navy ship, and that two others were killed in the attack.

    At least 27 people have been killed so far in the strikes, which have come amid a military build-up in the region, including the use of US guided-missile destroyers, F-35 jet fighters, a nuclear submarine and about 6,500 troops.

    Mr Trump this week confirmed publicly that he authorised the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to begin covert operations inside Venezuela, and is considering ordering land operations.

    The White House argues the US is engaged in a war with Venezuelan narco-terrorist groups, making the strikes lawful and legitimate.

    Why does the US say it is getting involved?

    Asked on Wednesday why he authorised the CIA to take action in Venezuela, Mr Trump said there were two reasons.

    "Number one: they have emptied their prisons into the United States of America," he claimed.

    "And the other thing, the drugs, we have a lot of drugs coming in from Venezuela, and a lot of Venezuelan drugs come in through the sea."

    Mr Trump has repeatedly claimed illicit drugs being shipped from Venezuela present a potentially fatal threat to the lives of ordinary Americans.

    In a post on Truth Social last month, he claimed Venezuelan drug cartels have been responsible for the deaths of millions of people in the US over a period of decades.

    The Venezuelan drugs and organised crime cartel Tren de Aragua has been a significant focus of the Trump administration's crackdown on illicit narcotics.

    Are Venezuelan criminals entering the US?

    It is difficult to put a firm number on how many people enter the US illegally, let alone those with criminal histories.

    That is because immigration officials can't account for those who manage to slip through the border.

    There is, however, no data to support the president's claim that any country has "emptied their prisons" into the US.

    Throughout the election campaign, Mr Trump falsely claimed the US was experiencing a surge in violent crimes, which he attributed to illegal immigrants.

    But data suggests illegal immigrants are not responsible for the vast majority of violent crimes.

    Texas is the only state that tracks crimes by immigration status, and a 2020 study that used this data found "considerably lower felony rates" among people in the US illegally, compared with US-born citizens.

    Are Venezuelan drug cartels a major issue?

    The Trump administration says Venezuelan drug cartels, and particularly Tren de Aragua, pose an unacceptable threat to the lives of Americans.

    The cartel formed in a Venezuelan prison in 2014 and developed into a criminal enterprise in the country.

    In February, the US State Department acted on an executive order signed by Mr Trump to designate Tren de Aragua as a foreign terrorist organisation.

    "Tren de Aragua members engage in 'diverse criminal activities', including money laundering, drug and human trafficking, kidnapping, organized retail crime, extortion, and murder," a report filed on the cartel in the US House of Representatives says.

    "Tren de Aragua's presence has spread throughout the United States and has notable criminal impact on cities across the country."

    Despite that, the House report stated that authorities in the US are not aware of the full number of Tren de Aragua members who may be living or operating within the country.

    The US State Department also alleges that Mr Maduro has helped manage and lead the Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns), a suspected informal drug-trafficking organisation that has assisted in funding Tren de Aragua networks and operations.

    Some in Venezuela and neighbouring Colombia have previously refuted the existence of that cartel.

    A key focus of Mr Trump's presidential election campaign was a planned crackdown on the influx of the drug fentanyl into the US.

    The US Drug Enforcement Administration's (DEA) 2025 national drug threat assessment report says Mexican cartels are most responsible for the importation of fentanyl into the US.

    Venezuela, however, is most associated with the trafficking of cocaine.

    Data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and the DEA shows Venezuela is not a major cocaine producer but is sometimes used by Colombian cartels to traffic the drug.

    A UN report into the global supply of cocaine shows Bolivia, Colombia and Peru top the list for boasting the largest rates of production and distribution of the drug into other countries.

    [Drug production map]

    The US States Sentencing Commission also says that while more than 18,000 cases of alleged drug trafficking were reported in 2024, methamphetamine accounted for more than 45 per cent of those cases, whereas powder and crack cocaine made up just 22.3 per cent.

    The statistics also show that more than 80 per cent of the people sentenced for drug trafficking crimes in the US were American citizens.

    Where could the US's actions lead?

    Venezuela has accused the US of breaking international law by striking the suspected drug vessels.

    It has led to concerns the conflict could break into a full-blown war.

    Adam Schiff, a Democratic US senator, said in a post on X that the continued strikes "risk getting the US into a full-fledged war".

    Another Democratic senator, Jeanne Shaheen, warned of such an outcome on Wednesday, local time.

    "The Trump administration's authorisation of covert CIA action, conducting lethal strikes on boats and hinting at land operations in Venezuela slides, the United States closer to outright conflict with no transparency, oversight or apparent guardrails," she said.

    Mr Trump said on Friday that Mr Maduro had offered "everything", including the OPEC member's natural resources, to secure a deal with the US to avoid a further escalation in tensions or a potential conflict.

    Why have others suggested Trump is picking a fight?

    There has been some speculation in Venezuela that the US is planning to topple the country's authoritarian president, Nicolas Maduro.

    Charles Sturt University terrorism studies lecturer César Álvarez told the ABC it was increasingly appearing that the US is seeking a regime change.

    "[It's] starting to look more like a surgical operation in which the ultimate objective for the US administration is to free Venezuelans from their dictator and cartel leader, restore democracy, and send a strong message to the growing number of drug trafficking organisations in Latin America that the war on drugs is far from being over," he said.

    Mr Álvarez said with Mr Trump having secured a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, and improved prospects for the Ukraine war, the president appears to be turning his attention closer to home.

    "For the region itself, for Australia, and for the US administration, a safer, more stable, more prosperous Latin America will always be a win.

    "That starts by restoring democracy in Venezuela and submitting to justice the leader of the Cartel of the Suns, Nicolás Maduro."

    Senator Shaheen echoed sentiments that the US might be looking to remove Mr Maduro from office.

    "The American people deserve to know if the administration is leading the US into another conflict, putting service members at risk or pursuing a regime-change operation."

    Venezuela's National Assembly president, Jorge Rodríguez, suggested the Trump administration was lying about its motivations behind the strikes to justify a possible invasion.

    "The objective is not the search for the truth, and much less fighting drug trafficking," he said, arguing it was "looking to have an excuse for aggression".

    Has the US attempted to police Latin America before?

    The US has a long history of intervening in situations of political or civil unrest in Latin American nations and assisting in sparking regime change.

    Between the 60s and late 80s, US forces played a part in at least seven major coups d'état in Central and South America that saw political leaders overthrown.

    Those interventions included the CIA involvement in the 1973 coup against Salvador Allende in Chile, which led to the 17-year Pinochet dictatorship, and the 1989 invasion of Panama and overthrow of Manuel Noriega's dictatorship.

    The DEA was also heavily involved in Colombia's decades-long fight against Pablo Escobar and the Medellin Cartel's regional drugs operations.

    In Venezuela, Mr Trump has attempted to intervene in the country's politics since 2019 and his first presidential administration, when he formally recognised opposition leader Juan Guaido as the country's leader over Mr Maduro.

    Mr Maduro accused the US at the time of attempting to stage a coup and cut all diplomatic ties with the White House.

    In addition to earlier sanctions against Venezuela in response, the Trump administration also this year increased a bounty on the head of Mr Maduro to $US50 million for information that leads to his arrest.

    © 2025 ABC Australian Broadcasting Corporation. All rights reserved

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