When Ukraine unleashed a swarm of drones deep inside Russia on June 1, it sent a message that nowhere is safe.
Operation "Spider's Web" showed how cheap drones could by-pass Russia's air defences and destroy billions of dollars worth of military bombers.
Reaching as far as Siberia, Ukraine struck at least four air bases across the country simultaneously.
The attack has been described as one of the most audacious operations in modern military history.
Military analysts say it marks the next phase in tactical drone warfare, and all countries — including Australia — need to take note.
The rise of FPV drones
Kyiv claims it took just 117 first-person view (FPV) drones smuggled over the border to take out $US7 billion ($10.9 billion) worth of Russian military equipment.
The drones — with an estimated cost of about $4,000 each — were aimed at some of Russia's most prized, nuclear-capable long-range bomber planes.
The full extent of the damage remains disputed, but satellite imagery verified by Reuters shows multiple strategic warplanes were destroyed.
Among them were Tu-95 heavy bombers and Tu-22 Backfires — long-range, supersonic strategic bombers — which have been used in attacks on Ukrainian cities.
Operated using a remote controller and a headset providing a front-on-view camera feed, FPV drones were originally designed for civilian racers.
But over the past two years, they have become a central pillar of Ukraine's war effort.
The Ukrainian government set out to make one million FPV drones locally last year.
By early 2025, Ukraine claimed to be producing 200,000 per month.
Although they carry fairly small warheads, the drones are capable of destroying tanks and other high-tech military equipment.
A recent report by RUSI, a defence and security think tank with headquarters in London, estimated that tactical drones now accounted for about 70 per cent of damaged and destroyed Russian systems.
Stephan Fruehling from the ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centres said the drones had limits, but with mass production and experimentation they had re-invented land warfare.
"They're not completely replacing traditional systems, but they definitely have completely changed the way that land warfare operates along the front lines," he said.
Tactical innovation on display
When looking at Ukraine's Operation Spider's Web, the innovative way drones were used stood out, Professor Fruehling said.
Ukraine extended the impact of FPV drones through coordinated timing and infiltration tactics.
The Security Service of Ukraine said it covertly smuggled the drones into Russia, packed in wooden house-like structures with remote-controlled lids.
"At the right moment, the roofs of the houses were remotely opened, and the drones flew to hit Russian bombers," a Ukrainian security source told AP.
These types of low-flying drones were already difficult to defend against, sneaking through un-monitored gaps.
And given they were launched directly from within the trucks, in close proximity to the air bases, Russia had little chance to respond.
The drones had already been transported beyond Russia's layered air defence systems.
[map]Drone warfare expert Oleksandra Molloy, senior lecturer in aviation at UNSW, said the operation was "precise and exceptionally well-executed".
"What we actually have is the next stage in the development of drone warfare," she told the ABC.
The multi-drone approach
Dr Molloy said it appeared Ukraine strategically dispersed a combination of different types of FPV drones.
The "multi-drone approach" likely involved a number of fibre optic drones that were better at evading signal jammers.
Fibre optics drones have been gaining battlefield prominence since the end of 2024.
They are fitted with a cable that transmits signals from the drone to the operator, which makes it difficult for an electronic warfare system to interrupt the frequency.
"Potentially the fibre optic drones went first and destroyed Russia's electronic warfare systems placed around targets," Dr Molloy said.
Then more attack drones would have followed to take out the bombers, she added.
AI-enabled precision
While the operation was not fully autonomous, analysis from the US Center for Strategic and International Studies said evidence suggested that artificial intelligence likely played a supporting role to home in on the Russian warplanes.
The AI-enabled drones could have also been used to identify vulnerable components of the high-value aircraft.
Ukrainian defence outlet Defense Express reported that there was evidence that Ukraine used its new 'Osa' FPV drones, which have AI functions.
It said photos purporting to show the drones used in the attack had the model's distinctive "thick and massive closed frame" that is used to house the electronics.
According to the Ukrainian manufacturer First Contact, Osa FPV drones have AI-capabilities and can carry payloads of up to 3.3 kg.
Dr Molloy said it was possible the AI-enabled drones were among the fleet used in the attack.
"I think there was a mix of different types," she said.
"What this highlights is that regardless of size, drones carrying 1 to 5 kilograms of explosives can cause major damage when guided with strategic precision."
Worldwide wake-up call
Russia would have assumed that distance and its air defence systems could keep its prized aircraft safe.
But the attack exposed vulnerabilities not just for Russia but militaries worldwide.
Dr Molloy said the attack was a wake-up call that the threat of drones needed to be taken more seriously, even in Australia.
It was becoming more difficult to protect both large and small assets from cheap and expendable technology that could be "anywhere, anytime".
"I'm pretty sure that every military leader, after the events we've seen this week, would have started thinking a little bit differently," she said.
"As we've seen the long-range capabilities of drones, I think that Australia should also look into the importance of keeping up with innovations and adaptations."
She said Australia was making some progress in the drone space, but still prioritised "large, expensive systems".
"We do need to pay attention to drones, and the development of these drones," she said.
"We need to keep up with the pace of 21st century modern warfare."
Some military analysts have criticised Australia for investing in big-cost projects such as AUKUS that focus on building large warships that take decades to get in the water.
Micheal Shoebridge, founder and director of Strategic Analysis Australia, said Australia's military leaders continued to downplay the impact of small autonomous systems.
"The problem is that others — including Australia's potential adversaries — are far more open minded and open to learning the lessons Ukraine keeps teaching not just the Russians but anyone interested in military systems and war-fighting," he said.
He added that Australian medium and small companies made some of the best drone and counter drone systems available.
But they were not being fully utilised to equip the Australian military with locally-developed and produced systems.
"Because they might show the flaws in multi-billion-dollar decades long 'investment' plans, which our bureaucrats seem to have the greatest incentive to defend," he said.
