Trump’s clash with California governor over LA protests has potential to influence next presidential race

During US president Donald Trump’s first administration, many Democratic governors served as a major source of opposition to Trump. Gavin Newsom, the current governor of California, regularly sparred with Trump on several issues, including immigration, healthcare and gun rights. But after Trump was re-elected in 2024, Newsom promised to work with Trump and put differences aside, much to the chagrin of progressives.

With Trump’s controversial deployment of the national guard and hundreds of marines to quell demonstrations in Los Angeles in protest of immigration raids, Newsom has made it clear that the truce is over, arguing that he believes that Trump is destroying democracy and acting like a dictator, with these actions.

The last time a president called out the national guard without the approval of a state governor was in March 1965 when Lyndon B. Johnson deployed the guard in Alabama, bypassing Governor George Wallace. This was to allow Americans to protest peacefully over civil rights. In that case, however, it is believed the governor wanted the president to act but didn’t want to take the decision himself.

Newsom argues that Trump “chose escalation. He chose more force.” Trump claimed that sending in the guard was necessary and that if he hadn’t got involved LA “would be burning”. As the hostilities between the two men have intensified, Trump appeared to agree with the suggestion from border czar Tom Homan that Newsom should be arrested.

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This would certainly be a first in US politics. While a handful of governors have faced arrest by US law enforcement agencies, there has never been a president involved in arresting state leaders due to an ongoing feud.

The delicate balance of power between individual states and the federal government, which for over 150 years remained committed to adhering to democratic processes, is now under threat. Some experts are asking if Trump’s extreme approach towards state power (bringing more power to the national level) will force the US to break apart.

While it was not unlawful to federalise the national guard, it was an exceptional overreach to do so without the California governor’s consent. State leaders and the White House are supposed to work together to ensure the safety and prosperity of the public.

Military units are not supposed to be used for domestic law enforcement, according to the 1878 Posse Comitatus Act (which generally prevents the president from using the national guard as a police force). Trump has worked around various laws and norms, or at the very least has violated the spirit of democratic laws and processes, such as by excessive use of executive orders that don’t need congressional approval.

Read more: Trump's use of the national guard against LA protesters defies all precedents

With this recent dispute with Newsom, Trump is attacking not only democratic norms but US values that there is strength in diversity. California is one of the more diverse states, home to 15 million Hispanics, almost 40% of the population. Trump’s excessive use of force on many law-abiding citizens has not won plaudits in California, a traditionally Democratic state.

Already unpopular with over 61% of Californians, who believe that his second term would be worse than his first, Trump is taking a risk that his aggressive stance with California, and Newsom in particular, will cost him votes, not just locally, but nationally.

Public opinion is divided on Trump’s handling of the protests. The most recent YouGov poll shows that 45% of Americans disapprove of the protests in Los Angeles, but 47% and 45% disapprove the deployment of the marines and the national guard, respectively.

In a new Economist poll, conducted during the protests, 53% of Americans say the US is heading in the wrong direction, compared with 35% who feel it is going in the right direction.

On the issue of immigration more generally, according to a recent CBS News poll 54% of citizens agree with Trump’s immigration policies, the one area that Trump has a majority of support. However, in that same poll, only 42% believe that Trump’s immigration raids are making the country safer.

Immigrants are actually 60% less likely to commit crimes in the US, compared to rest of the population. And when they do commit crimes, they are usually related to violations of immigration law. As immigration waves have increased, the US has seen a corresponding decrease in crime.

Despite these facts, standing up to Trump over these protests is not necessarily a winning issue for the Democrats. Trump has been highly effective at tapping into fears of unchecked immigration helping to propel him to victory.

The issue of immigration has also exposed rifts within the Democratic party. Some have argued for more criticism of Trump’s policies (such as Trump’s handling of the mistakenly deported man, Kilmar Abrego Garcia), while other Democrats have sought to steer clear of this topic. Despite the risks involved, Newsom is trying to capitalise on this moment to win the long-term political battle against Trump.

Newsom is winning some accolades for standing up to Trump and clear and consistent communication with the public. And if Trump keeps pushing the limits, it could lead to even more public backlash against the president’s actions and further burnish Newsom’s reputation.

Trump often appears to resent California for overwhelmingly voting against him in presidential elections, and has been accused of abandoning the state in times of vulnerability, such as during the 2019 wildfires.

If Trump arrests Newsom, this will support the governor’s narrative that Trump is turning the country into a dictatorship, and that this is an inflection point in the battle to save democracy. Nevertheless, as critics believe that Newsom is using this moment to position himself for a 2028 presidential bid, this dispute over immigration unrest also has the potential to play into Trump’s hands.

Newsom will be hoping that the protests don’t spiral out of control, potentially justifying Trump’s deployment of the national guards and further turning public opinion against the very cause that sparked the demonstrations.

Trump often uses these stand-offs to set an example and to send a message to other political figures not to cross him. This is a test of his power to impose his will on blue states, and show that he is in charge. It will also be a test of whether he can use this kind of tactic to win more support for his style of presidency.

Natasha Lindstaedt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.