A classified US military intelligence report seen by the ABC says China is rapidly building up the country's commercial ferry fleet to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan.
The report dates from earlier this year and was prepared by members of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) for the Pentagon.
The US intelligence says the large ocean-going vessels have been modified to carry tanks and partake in amphibious operations.
The ABC has seen the report on the condition that it isn't quoted directly, in order to protect the source of the information.
In 2022 alone, some 30 Chinese commercial ferries were monitored by Five Eyes intelligence in military exercises involving People's Liberation Army (PLA) troops.
Five Eyes is an intelligence-sharing alliance between Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the US.
China is building more than 70 of the large vessels by the end of 2026.
Taiwan's government confirmed to the ABC that it viewed the vessels as part of China's "expansionist intentions" vis-à-vis Taiwan.
"We are also seeing increasing grey-zone tactics … to weaken Taiwan's democracy and society, such as cyber attacks," Douglas Hsu, Taiwan's Chief Representative to Australia, told the ABC.
"Civilian vessels or other dual-use facilities in [the] maritime domain are also part of China's strategy," he said.
Cargo ships being used with new landing docks
Satellite intelligence of the ferries from earlier this year show them being used alongside a series of new landing docks off China's coastline, as well as deploying amphibious forces in military exercises.
The landing docks are a new class of vessel that allow the ferries to deploy cargo and people onto a beach.
The Department of Defense intelligence report assessed the commercial ferries as possible military targets in a conflict scenario with China.
This means the ferries could be targeted and sunk by US forces in the event of a Taiwan crisis, even with civilian crews on board.
It is a position partly reflected in discussion papers within the US Indo-Pacific Command, which has expressed growing alarm about the vessels.
"The direct insertion of troops into conflict is a belligerent act normally reserved for warships, yet the People's Liberation Army appears intent to use commercial roll-on-roll-off vessels (non-warships) for this purpose," an internal paper found.
A senior Australian government source, familiar with the matter, has confirmed to the ABC that Australia had also seen the report.
Satellite imagery reveals preparations
China is building more than 70 large ferries for its domestic market by the end of next year, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The ferries serve as civilian ships to transport people and cargo, but have occasionally been filmed conducting PLA exercises.
Professor Hu Bo, Director of the Center for Maritime Strategy Studies at Peking University, said the US military intelligence assessment was a "naked threat" to China.
"It's common sense that China is preparing for a Taiwan crisis. This does not mean China will do something quickly in the future. Preparation is not the same as intention," he told the ABC.
China considers Taiwan its territory, and any military effort to retake the island as a legitimate effort at reunification.
US concerned over preparations
The US intelligence community believes that China's leader, Xi Jinping, has ordered the PLA to be capable of an invasion of Taiwan from 2027.
One of the largest stumbling blocks to that readiness has been the country's ability to deploy large masses of soldiers and material on a beachhead.
Until now.
Earlier this year, a series of mysterious landing barges were photographed on Chinese social media conducting a training exercise about 350 kilometres south-west of the Chinese city of Guangzhou.
The beach at Zhanjiang, where the vessels were filmed, is near the headquarters for the PLA's Southern Theatre Command, which runs the operations targeting Taiwan.
"China is undoubtedly building capabilities consistent with preparing for an invasion of Taiwan," James Corera, Director of Cyber, Technology and Security at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), told the ABC.
Mr Corera has not seen the US intelligence report, which is classified.
What do the images show?
The images were picked up by US intelligence and assessed as being three new classes of landing barges — capable of deploying troops and vehicles onto beaches.
Images captured in March show China's ferries parking up next to the landing barges.
The three classes are distinguished by differing sizes, with the smallest being 110 meters long and the largest being 185 meters long.
"The surprising thing is these are a matched set, like Russian dolls that go together." Thomas Shugart, an Adjunct Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security and retired US naval captain, said.
"They implant themselves and actually lift themselves out of the water," he said.
Satellite imagery shows more landing docks under construction at Chinese shipyards.
The US Naval War College said the landing docks appear to be designed to be specifically used with China's roll-on-roll-off (ro-ro) ferries.
This was because of their various lengths and where the loading doors are located.
"China is building ports that sail — but they only matter if it can first win the seas. The barges don't win the beach — they scale up once the beach is won," Mr Corera told the ABC.
"They're vulnerable, limited and only useful once China has already made significant progress ashore.
"In short, landing docks and ferries are logistics multipliers."
Patent plans of Chinese landing docks analysed by the US Naval War College reveal they can link together to form an 820-metre pier.
What is a 'Ro-ro' ferry?
Ro-ro (roll-on-roll-off) ferries are commercial cargo vessels capable of holding hundreds of passengers and vehicles.
The first evidence of ferries being used for Chinese military operations came in 2019 when the 15,000-ton vessel, Bang Chui Dao, participated in an amphibious assault exercise.
Some of the types of ferries that China is building are similar in size to the Spirit of Tasmania at about 200 meters long.
But the Department of Defense report found that the design of the Chinese cargo ships' doors was reinforced to specifically allow for the transportation of tanks.
A report by the CSIS said China was building 76 large ferries for its own use from 2023 to 2026.
"There is clear evidence that the Chinese military intends to use ro-ros to support military operations," the report found.
China is the world's largest shipbuilder.
Even so, the 76 ferries that China is building for its own use are close to 40 per cent of the country's entire commercial ferry production output over three years.
They include ferries built for exporting to other countries, according to the CSIS.
The scale of China's ferry production has alarmed the US Department of Defense, according to the intelligence report.
"Many [of these ferries] are owned by state-linked firms and modified under laws requiring 'national defence' features," Mr Corera said.
"These ferries have been integrated into PLA training, demonstrating strong progress under President Xi's civil-military fusion strategy. They can legally be mobilised in wartime, expanding lift capacity well beyond dedicated amphibious ships."
US intelligence a 'threat' to China
Professor Hu Bo has not seen the contents of the classified report but said it echoed "US militaristic thinking" and was a "threat".
"In wartime, China can legitimately use everything to support its operations. It must be noted that Taiwan is a domestic issue for China," he said.
China's position is made clear in an official white paper, called The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era.
In it, China said: "The state shall never allow the 'Taiwan independence' secessionist forces to make Taiwan secede from China under any name or by any means."
Taiwan, for its part, sees itself as a sovereign nation.
Professor Hu Bo conceded the satellite intelligence could be connected to Taiwan.
"Every capability can be connected to a Taiwan scenario but China can be very patient," he said.
"We can wait many years for a peaceful solution. I think the US has exaggerated China's intentions.
"I think the main reason China is strengthening its navy is very simple. It's because of the US military threat."
It comes after the Royal United Services Institute in London said it had acquired documents appearing to show Russia is helping China prepare for a potential invasion of Taiwan.
The ABC has sought comment from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Are China's ferries and landing docks something new?
Other nations, including the US, have used similar ferries in the past to deploy military units in peacetime operations.
Multiple nations, including Australia, also use amphibious vessels in their navies for landing soldiers and vehicles on beaches.
The Royal Australian Navy operates the Canberra-class landing dock, whereas the United States has multiple classes of landing dock ships.
China's use of civilian ferries to act as a relatively affordable method of transporting troops and vehicles is a conundrum for Western military planners.
The sheer scale of China's ro-ro ferry fleet creates a strategic headache for US military planners.
The US is confronted with the prospect of sinking civilian ships during a Taiwan Straits crisis.
This is because targeting civilian ships, like ferries, violates international legal norms, known as the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC), unless they've been clearly requisitioned for military use.
The dilemma is explored in US Indo-Pacific Command discussion papers, which considered whether targeting civilian-built ferries would violate international law.
The paper was based on the scenario of a future armed clash with China over Taiwan. It concluded that ferries being operated by the PLA were legitimate military targets.
Mr Corera urged caution, noting that while intelligence was alarming, the real signals would be China's training tempo, carrier and rocket forces, and that the landing docks could be a red herring.
"These matter far more than a handful of barges. They speak directly to Xi Jinping's push to ensure the PLA can meet his 2027 capability milestone," he said.
"Landing docks look impressive in pictures, but they're vulnerable, limited, and only useful once China has already made significant progress ashore."
Professor Hu Bo said China was reaching a point where it had enough naval power in the Pacific to challenge the United States.
"If the US tries to destroy Chinese vessels in a Taiwan crisis, it will face very serious countermeasures from China," he said.
The US Department of Defense and Australia's Defence Minister Richard Marles declined to comment.
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