Kurdish opposition fighters are preparing an imminent ground operation to enter Iran, threatening to open a new front in the escalating war.
Two senior sources within a new coalition of Iranian Kurdish groups in Northern Iraq have told the ABC they will enter Iran as soon as they have sufficient US and Israeli air support, denying reports they have already crossed.
They have also denied US media reports the CIA is working to arm Kurdish groups to foment an uprising.
The Kurds are an ethnic group stretching across Türkiye, Syria, Iraq and Iran, who have long called for safeguarding their rights either by the establishment of their own state or through decentralisation of existing states to grant them autonomy.
They are often referred to as one of the largest ethnic groups without their own country.
A source within Komala, one of the biggest Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, says they have 15,000 to 20,000 fighters near the Iraqi-Iran border who could enter within days. Some of them are believed to have travelled from Europe and the US.
Speaking from Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan region of Iraq, he told the ABC the "biggest weapon is our people", and that they will call for an uprising once they've entered, activating "thousands of sleeper cells within Iran".
He said they were armed with light weapons bought on the black market within Northern Iraq.
Hundreds of fighters from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC) would be offered full immunity if they surrendered, according to the source.
A second figure within a Kurdish opposition group in Erbil told the ABC their forces were ready to enter "at any given moment".
Kurdish fight against regime will need US help, experts say
Iraqi Kurds govern an autonomous region in Northern Iraq and shelter thousands of dissident Iranian Kurdish groups.
Iran has been attacking the region daily since the start of the war, including by striking US military bases in Erbil.
It is unclear exactly how many Kurds live in Iran but it is thought the population is about 8 million.
Many are concentrated in western Iran in Kurdistan province, which has been hit by Israeli and US air strikes.
The issue of Kurdish autonomy has long been one of the most contentious political questions in Iran, with successive governments — including the current regime — rejecting proposals for federalism or regional self-rule.
For many Kurdish political groups, however, federalism sits at the core of their political demands, arguing it is the only realistic framework for securing Kurdish rights within a future democratic Iran.
Security experts believe Kurdish ground forces alone are not enough to overthrow the Iranian regime.
Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute in the UK, said Kurdish opposition forces would be outnumbered by the more sophisticated and better-armed IGRC.
"It's very difficult to envision using the Kurdish armed factions as a forward ground force [and] it's very difficult to imagine that they would succeed in toppling the regime," she said.
Dr Ozcelik said the group could be used to press into western Iran and carve out a staging ground for Israeli and American forces that could be used for future attacks.
"I think what they are envisioning is to be able to create a Kurdish-controlled enclave in western Iran under air cover provided by the US and Israel," she said.
"This would then provide a safe haven for attacks against regime targets inward in the internal territory of Iran."
Erbil-based political analyst Lawk Ghafuri was doubtful Kurdish forces could effect regime change unless they received massive American ground support.
"It would be a suicide mission," he told the ABC.
"If the Kurds actually start an operation in western Iran, they won't get out of western Iran.
"If you want to overthrow or topple the regime in Tehran, you need to fight in Tehran.
"It's not the right time, in my own opinion — the Iranian regime is still powerful, it's still capable of … targeting anywhere and anyone."
US faces 'complex' balancing act
The US has a long and chequered history of working hand in glove with Kurdish-led forces to overthrow regimes.
In 1991, the US supported the Kurds in Iraq in an unsuccessful attempt to overthrow Saddam Hussein.
Tens of thousands of people died and millions were displaced but a coalition created the Kurdistan region which provided the group with ongoing protection.
More recently, the US backed the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in a military push to drive the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group out of Syria.
But the US has been reducing its presence in Syria; it has ended its relationship with the SDF and is reportedly planning to withdraw all its remaining 1,000 troops there.
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Many analysts believe the Americans have left Kurds in Syria extremely vulnerable.
Lawk Ghafuri said opposition forces would need to secure guarantees from the US if it wanted to join its military operation in Iran.
"The Kurds have been thrown under the bus after they have done the job for US in Syria and now will it be the same Iran?" he said.
"What is the guarantee? What is the post-conflict plan for the Kurds?"
Analysts say the emerging Kurdish role in the conflict could also place Washington in a difficult strategic position as it tries to balance relationships with its regional allies, such as Türkiye, while supporting opposition forces inside Iran.
Kurdish political researcher Damoon Jehani, who studies Iranian opposition movements and diaspora networks at La Trobe University, said one of the reasons the US struggled to sustain long-term support for Kurdish forces inside Syria was because of the position of Türkiye, which has long had tensions with Kurdish movements.
"That is what makes the situation so complex," Mr Jehani said.
"The United States could once again find itself balancing relations with a major regional power like Türkiye, a potential new government in Iran, and the Kurdish forces themselves."
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