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16 Dec 2024 12:00
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  •   Home > News > International

    Where global players in Syria stand after Assad's downfall

    The United States, Russia, Türkiye and Iran are among the key global players with a foothold in Syria. This is what they potentially stand to gain, or lose, from Assad's downfall.


    The world is watching to see how Syria's political landscape changes after a lightning advance by rebels swept Bashar al-Assad out of power.

    But already, some clear winners and losers are emerging.

    Throughout the Assad family's half-century rule, several foreign powers have had a strong presence in the country.

    Russia and Iran were on one side backing Assad.

    While Türkiye, the United States, and its various allies were on the other, supporting different anti-government rebel groups.

    What role will the key powers play in a post-Assad Syria?

    Türkiye

    The Syrian civil war started in 2011 after an uprising against Assad's rule.

    It began as street protests and quickly escalated into a full-scale war between the Syrian government and anti-government rebel groups.

    Türkiye, which supported the uprising, backed some of the groups, most of which now fight under the banner of the Syrian National Army (SNA).

    Sharing a 911-kilometre border with Syria, Türkiye has provided arms, military and political support to the groups.

    Mehmet Ozalp, the head of Charles Sturt University's Centre for Islamic Studies, said Türkiye played a key role.

    "The rebel groups were able to survive and even get stronger through the free flow of goods and other political support from Türkiye," he told the ABC.

    "Although Türkiye does not control these groups, it also allowed for trading and supplies coming from other supporters."

    One of Türkiye's main goals has been to weaken Syrian Kurdish armed groups which carved out autonomous enclaves along the Turkish border during the civil war.

    Ankara views the Syrian Kurdish groups as an extension of the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency in Türkiye since 1984.

    Another pressing concern for Türkiye is securing the return home of about 3 million Syrian refugees who fled to the country during the civil war.

    Turkish officials have strongly rejected claims of any involvement in the overthrow of the Assad regime.

    But some observers believe that the offensive could not have gone ahead without Ankara's consent.

    It has allowed Türkiye, through the SNA, to push back against Kurdish forces in Syria allied to the PKK.

    Mohammed Soliman from the US Foreign Policy Research Institute said the fall of Assad's regime had allowed Türkiye to play its "strongest hand yet in Syria".

    "Ankara has outmanoeuvred both Russia and Iran, solidifying its influence in shaping the post-Assad landscape," he said.

    "This underscores Türkiye's emergence as a decisive power in the Middle East and a pivotal player in the broader geopolitical arena."

    Russia

    Apart from Assad, Russian President Valdimir Putin was "the biggest loser" in the toppling of the regime, Professor Ozalp said.

    The then-Soviet Union was a longtime ally of Assad's father, Hafez Assad, who ruled the country for nearly 30 years.

    Russia continued to be a key backer of Damascus throughout the civil war.

    When Assad's rule neared collapse after a series of battlefield defeats in 2015, Russia joined Iran to intervene militarily.

    The support allowed Assad to reclaim control of most of Syria, making the Kremlin a key power broker in the Middle East and boosting Russia's prestige.

    By rescuing Assad from imminent collapse, Russia also secured two strategic military bases in Syria.

    An air base at Khmeimim and a naval base in Tartus solidified its presence in the eastern Mediterranean.

    But this time around, Russia was caught up in its own conflict in Ukraine, and didn't come to the aid of its longtime ally.

    The number of Russian warplanes at Khmeimim air base has shrunk from several dozen to just a few.

    Asked about the bases, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it would be a topic for future discussions with the new authorities.

    Dr Soliman said Russia projected power from Syria into Libya, the Sahel, and beyond, anchoring its broader Middle East and Africa strategy.

    "The unravelling of Assad's regime imperils these gains," he said.

    "Should Moscow be forced to withdraw or significantly reduce its footprint, its hard power in the region and its ambitions for influence in the Mediterranean and Africa would diminish."

    The United States

    The US military intervention in Syria began in 2014 after the Islamic State group declared its rule over a third of Syria and Iraq.

    An initially small contingent of US special forces were deployed to Syria, working with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to drive Islamic State from areas it had captured in Syria's north and east.

    President Joe Biden said the US military had been conducting air strikes in Syria since Assad's fall to keep the group from reasserting itself.

    However, president-elect Donald Trump, who takes office in January, has decried US involvement, posting to his social media platform: "THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT."

    In 2019, during his first term as president, Trump pulled most US troops out of Syria.

    About 900 remain, including forces working with Kurdish allies in the north-east.

    Professor Ozalp said Trump's impending return to the White House was likely a factor in the rebel groups choosing to launch an offensive now.

    "They know Trump's policy in Syria of indifference or not getting involved too much," he said.

    "And in the caretaker period between Biden and Trump, they would think that whatever the gains they have, they might be able to keep when Trump actually comes to power."

    Iran

    Iran deployed its Revolutionary Guards to Syria as early as 2012 to help Assad, and is believed to have sent hundreds of troops and spent billions of dollars to support the regime.

    For Iran, Assad was a crucial ally.

    Syria was part of its "Axis of Resistance", a network of militant groups and proxies formed to counter US and Israeli power across the Middle East.

    Syria played a crucial role in the axis, acting as the geographical link that allowed Iran to move weapons and other supplies to allied groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.

    The presence of Iranian and Iran-backed forces in Syria had been a big point of concern for Israel, prompting it to carry out frequent air strikes in Syria.

    Now analysts say Israel has the upper hand.

    Dr Soliman said the collapse of Assad's regime marked the unravelling of the regional axis that Iran had "painstakingly constructed".

    "Syria was the linchpin of Tehran's ambitions in the Levant — a vital corridor to Hezbollah in Lebanon, a frontline against Israel, and a symbol of Iran's strategic depth," he said.

    "Isolated and abandoned, Tehran now faces a future defined by heightened regional vulnerability."

    Israel

    Shortly after Assad's overthrow, Israel ordered its troops to enter a demilitarised buffer zone situated along the east of Syria's Golan Heights plateau it controls.

    Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights is not recognised by any country other than the US, and the Israel Defence Forces's (IDF) deployment in the buffer zone outside of it effectively amounts to Israel driving deeper into Syrian territory.

    Known as the Area of Separation, the zone was set up as an area of no military engagement after the 1973 Middle East war.

    Several Arab nations characterised the move as an opportunistic land grab.

    UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric and the UN's Special Envoy for Syria also said it violated terms of the 1974 ceasefire deal.

    [MAP]

    In response to criticism of Israeli troops entering the buffer zone, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted the move was "defensive" after rebel takeover of Syria.

    "We have no intention of interfering in Syria's internal affairs, but we clearly intend to do what is necessary to ensure our security," Mr Netanyahu said.

    Since Assad fled Syria, Israel has carried out air strikes across the country.

    Israel said it was targeting military infrastructure, naval fleets, and weapons production sites to ensure arms stockpiles do not fall into the hands of rebels.

    Professor Ozalp said the current developments in Syria were favourable for Israel.

    "But even though the conditions are now more favourable for Israel, it will still see the new Syrian leadership as a threat," he said.

    "And will want to weaken its militarily as much as possible."

    ABC/Wires

    © 2024 ABC Australian Broadcasting Corporation. All rights reserved

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