The start date for 'phase two' of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire is approaching.
But negotiations, which were meant to begin more than a fortnight ago, remain up in the air.
The agreement to pause fighting and reach a resolution in the war-ravaged Gaza Strip came into effect on January 19.
Since then, there has been a series of hostage releases, and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees have been freed from Israeli prisons.
There has also been an increase in aid deliveries to Gaza.
But the deal has been on shaky ground, and the second phase is expected to be much more difficult.
Where is phase one at?
Phase one of the three-stage agreement is due to end on March 2.
Over the first six weeks, a total of 33 hostages in Gaza — eight of whom are dead — were supposed to be freed in exchange for almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
Since the ceasefire came into effect:
- 25 hostages held by Hamas in Gaza have been released
- Six more are set to be freed on Saturday
- The bodies of four hostages, including two young children and their mother, were handed to Israeli authorities on Thursday
- More than 730 Palestinian prisoners and detainees have been freed so far
More than 70 hostages reportedly remain in Gaza, although nearly half are believed to be dead.
The others were released, rescued, or their bodies were recovered.
On Thursday, the remains of four Israeli hostages abducted during the October 7, 2023, terror attacks were handed over by Hamas. The bodies are said to be Shiri Bibas, her two children Ariel and Kfir, and elderly peace activist Oded Lifschitz.
Israel confirmed four coffins had arrived in Tel Aviv and were undergoing formal identification at the national forensic institute.
Hamas-led militants took 251 hostages during their cross-border attack in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, which killed about 1,200 people, according to Israeli authorities.
Israel's retaliatory assault on Gaza has killed more than 48,000 Palestinians, according to Palestinian health officials, laid waste to much of the enclave, and displaced 90 per cent of the population.
The deal required 600 truckloads of humanitarian aid to be allowed into Gaza every day of the ceasefire, 50 of them carrying fuel, with 300 of the trucks allocated to north Gaza
Last week, the UN said thousands of trucks carrying food, shelter and medicines had entered the Gaza Strip at a rate of abouy 600 a day since the ceasefire began.
Hamas has accused Israel of delaying the delivery of 60,000 mobile houses and 200,000 tents as well as heavy machinery to remove rubble and fuel.
Israel has denied the accusation, but Zeev Elkin, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's security cabinet, confirmed that a quantity of mobile homes was standing at the border.
Israel was expected to gradually withdraw forces from central Gaza and return displaced Palestinians to the north.
In keeping with the deal, earlier this month, the Israeli military completed its withdrawal from its remaining positions in the Netzarim Corridor, which bisects Gaza.
Crowds of people were seen traversing the corridor as Hamas announced the Israeli withdrawal, while a long line of cars waited to pass through.
An Israeli security source confirmed the military was leaving its positions there.
What's in phase two?
Negotiations for the second phase of the deal were supposed to start on February 4.
But Qatar, which together with Egypt and the United States is mediating between the sides, said the talks had not yet officially started.
"It will happen this week," Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar told a press conference in Jerusalem.
The points set out in phase two include:
- The release of all remaining 62 hostages in Gaza including Israeli male soldiers
- The remaining hostages would be released in return for more Palestinian prisoners
- The complete withdrawal of Israeli soldiers from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire
The final phase of the ceasefire agreement calls for the return of the bodies of remaining hostages and the start of a major reconstruction of Gaza, supervised by Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations.
What are both sides saying?
- Israel has said it would not agree to a complete withdrawal until Hamas's military and political capabilities are eliminated
- Hamas has said it would not hand over the last hostages until Israel removes all troops
Hamas has accused Israel of stalling during crucial negotiations on a lasting peace in Gaza.
Hamas' leader in Gaza, Khalil Al-Hayya, said the group had "proven their seriousness" in implementing the ceasefire, and accused Israel of procrastinating.
After the Israeli security cabinet met this week, Foreign Minister Sa'ar said they were ready to open negotiations on the second phase.
He said an agreement would be reached "before the 42nd day", but threatened to return to taking military actions if the negotiations were "not leading anywhere, not effective, not, constructive".
Mr Sa'ar said Israel would never agree to any plan for the future of Gaza which included the involvement of Hamas or the Palestinian Authority (PA), which operates in the occupied West Bank.
What could happen next?
Aaron David Miller, an analyst and former Middle East negotiator for the US State Department, said there was "almost no way" the deal could move smoothly into phase two.
He said it was in the best interests of Hamas and Israel to see through phase one, but the next round of demands would require a lot more heavy lifting to de-escalate the situation.
"I see absolutely no chance that that's going to happen," he told ABC News Breakfast.
"I suspect that we are heading back for resumption of conflict."
US President Donald Trump's pitch to take over Gaza and resettle Palestinians in neighbouring countries, ahead of rebuilding the strip, continues to loom over the 'phase two' talks.
Egypt and Jordan have both rejected suggestions they would take in displaced Palestinians.
Mr Netanyahu has appointed an advisor with strong ties to the Trump White House to lead stage two negotiations.
US-born Ron Dermer is an Israeli cabinet minister who previously served as the country's ambassador to the US and is a former Republican activist.
Eyal Mayroz, a senior lecturer in Peace and Conflict studies at the University of Sydney, said the US had a lot of influence over how the ceasefire could play out.
"I think Trump holds a lot of the cards to the survival of viability of phase two," he said.
He said there were "mixed interests" from both Hamas and Israel going into phase two.
Hamas needed to trickle out hostages because it is the only card that they have left.
And Mr Netanyahu has personal interests in prolonging the war, because he risks losing his coalition base who want it to continue, Dr Mayroz said.
But neither want to be seen as "the spoiler".
"What we could see is each side trying to manoeuvre the other side to to be seen as if they are undermining the the second phase," he said.
ABC/Wires
