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30 Jun 2024 4:48
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  •   Home > News > International

    In a divided France, one thing unites most people and politicians: desperation to bring the president down

    A far-right wave is sweeping through France and while it is polarising the country, there is something many can agree on: a desire to see President Emmanuel Macron's party booted out of office.


    Earlier this month, Guenaël Brohan walked into his local polling place and did something he's never done before.

    Slouched against his tractor, he rattles off his political views, which are so uncontroversial they don't bear mentioning.

    "But I voted for Jordan Bardella, and for the Rassemblement National," he says.

    "I wanted to send a message to our current government: it has to change. We are in a country that is going to sink."

    Guenaël is not alone. Indeed, his ballot was part of a far-right tsunami that has turned French politics on its head.

    The next two weekends will determine whether it stays that way.

    His farm is in Brittany in France's north-west, a region President Emmanuel Macron used to be able to count on for support. Not anymore.

    Bardella's populist movement didn't just swamp this area when the elections for the European Parliament were held on June 9.

    It garnered 31 per cent of the vote across the country — more than double its nearest rivals.

    The shift was so seismic, Macron said it "could not be ignored", dissolved his own lower house and called a snap national election an hour after the results were announced.

    "I was not at all surprised by the results. It was a protest vote which has been brewing for several months, or even longer," Guenaël says.

    "In recent years, France has become a bit of a brothel … the country hasn't been running as it should be."

    Now, Rassemblement National (RN), or National Rally, is eyeing a much bigger prize: forming France's most far-right government since the Nazi occupation in World War II.

    While RN isn't a new political party, it is a fresh force.

    It was founded in the early 70s. Anti-Europe, anti-immigration firebrand Marine Le Pen — a three-time runner-up to Macron in presidential elections — has been its polarising face since 2011.

    She has previously declared her views as being in line with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, described France as "a university for jihadists" and branded the EU an "anti-democratic monster".

    RN has often been accused of running on xenophobic policy platforms. In 2015, Le Pen expelled her own father, who founded the party, over allegations of anti-Semitism.

    Lately, it's been trying to clean up its image.

    In 2022, Bardella, then aged 26, became RN's president, sharing the limelight with Le Pen, who remains its parliamentary leader and presidential candidate.

    He's the child of immigrants and hails from one of Paris's roughest boroughs.

    Dr Marta Lorimer, a fellow in European politics at the London School of Economics, says the move has helped RN appeal to moderate voters.

    "I think what Bardella has done very, very well is attract media attention to the party and a more positive media coverage of the party," she says.

    "He is a youthful face. He has no particular connections to the old National Rally.

    "But strictly speaking, Bardella hasn't really changed much of what the National Rally stands for. In fact, at least initially, he was able to speak to some of the more extreme fringes of the French far right."

    If RN forms government, Bardella is expected to become prime minister and responsible for most of France's domestic affairs.

    Macron, who doesn't face a presidential election for another three years, would remain as head of state and in charge of foreign policy and defence.

    Macron's gamble could backfire

    Opinion polls predicted RN's dominant performance at the European vote, but Macron's decision to call a national election was a surprise.

    It didn't need to be held until 2027. His centrist party is deeply unpopular, and he appeared to have little to gain from sending people to the ballot box. Authorities are also preoccupied with hosting the Olympic Games next month.

    Dr Lorimer says the timing was about Macron trying to keep "control".

    "He was hoping, not that the National Rally would be scrambling, but that the left would be scrambling," she says.

    "So his gamble was saying, I'm going to call an election. I'm ready for it. The National Rally is ready for it. No one else is.

    "He's saying this is going to be a two-way contest between myself and the National Rally. And either I win or if they win, and they're going to be an absolute disaster in government."

    His gamble could yet backfire.

    France's numerous leftist parties have created a coalition — the Nouveau Front Populaire, or New Popular Front — they hope will galvanise previously splintered support.

    It was launched the day after Macron called the snap poll and is a broad alliance encompassing multiple outfits from the centre left to the French Communist Party.

    Fanny Le Nub, a 20-year-old university student from Brittany, describes "losing" the area to the far right at the European elections as devastating.

    She's leading a grassroots push to try and counter RN's rise by telling people disillusioned with Macron's government that there are other options.

    "We are campaigning everywhere, we are putting ourselves all over Brittany to show people they have to participate and vote," she says.

    "We must counter this massive vote for the far right. With the Popular Front, we will be able to mobilise all the people who are on the left and no longer have this division."

    Last week, thousands attended a rowdy protest in Brittany's capital, Rennes, that ended with police firing tear gas at the most rebellious demonstrators. Seven people were arrested.

    Opinion polls show it could garner significant support. An Ipsos sample published on Sunday had it in second place, with 29.5 per cent of the national vote, behind RN (35.5 per cent). Macron's party, Renaissance, was a distant third, with 19.5 per cent.

    Gautier Langlois, 20, is another trying to get NFP candidates over the line in Brittany. He's confident, too.

    "When our votes are combined, we actually manage to far surpass them. We know that Brittany will not fall into the hands of the National Rally," he says.

    "We have never had a National Rally mayor here before and we never will."

    'People are ready for change'

    As some in Brittany grapple with a changing political complexion, there are areas where electing far-right politicians is nothing new.

    The Haut-de-France region, near the border with Belgium, is Le Pen heartland.

    Ludociv Pajot has been the RN mayor of Bruay-La-Buissière, population 22,000, since 2020. He says the party is ready to govern the entire country.

    "We are now in charge of large cities … we have demonstrated we can change the daily lives of the French," he says. "Now obviously the same thing is needed at state level."

    While RN has polled well at elections before, they've always been considered the underdog. Not this time.

    "I think French people are ready for change because they want to put an end to the policy led by Emmanuel Macron," Pajot says.

    "We feel there is a strong mobilisation of French people to go and vote, to mobilise during these legislative elections, because they understand what's at stake."

    Macron has been France's president since 2017.

    Aged just 39 when he was first elected, he has seen off multiple challenges from the far right during his time in office.

    But lately, his popularity has plummeted. In particular, his decision to increase the state pension age from 62 to 64 last year was opposed by two-thirds of the electorate.

    He also doesn't have a majority in parliament, meaning passing legislation has been a headache.

    Voting will be held over two rounds, starting on Sunday.

    The first is generally used to cull the least popular candidates. The second, on July 7, is a de facto run-off, where the winners are confirmed.

    There's a chance Macron's party may not make it past the first round of voting in some areas.

    Indeed, contempt for the president is perhaps the only thing uniting people across the political divide.

    Leaflets being handed out in towns and cities around the country for RN and NFP both contain the same promise: an alternative to Macron.

    Back in Brittany, that's a difficult proposition for Guenaël, who remains unsure who he will vote for this Sunday.

    He says while RN has some "interesting ideas", he doesn't think they're capable of governing the country.

    Even though he voted for them in the European elections, he says his main reason for doing so was to send a message to the government.

    "Our government is too messed up. And I can't really vote for them anymore," he says.

    But for Guenaël, backing an alliance that includes the Communist Party is out of the question.

    "If we have, in the second round, a choice between the extreme left and right … I personally consider the extreme left very dangerous people."

    When Macron announced he was dissolving the lower house, he used his televised address to dismiss resignation rumours.

    Under France's political system, a presidential election won't be held until 2027. That means Macron will keep his job as head of state, no matter what happens over the next two Sundays.

    But after the results come in, he could be in a position that would make even the most hardened politician's eyes water: leading a country where many citizens despise him, with a hostile government determined to bring him down.


    ABC




    © 2024 ABC Australian Broadcasting Corporation. All rights reserved

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