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  •   Home > News > International

    Vladimir Putin suffers 'catastrophic loss' in Syria after fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime

    With the Assads potentially headed to a luxe haven for exiles in Moscow, Vladimir Putin is left scrambling to save his two bases in Syria and maintain his foothold in the region.


    As rebels stormed into Damascus and toppled a feared family that ruled Syria for half a century, a mystery plane was taking off from the country's north.

    The plane left the city of Latakia before appearing to switch its transponder off and disappearing off the map, according to data from the Flightradar website.

    It then reappeared again near Moscow, but the transponder was turned off again before landing.

    We will never know for sure who, or what, was on board that plane.

    But hours later, Russia announced that deposed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad had fled his homeland and arrived in Moscow.

    "Russia has granted asylum to him and his family on humanitarian grounds," a Kremlin source told TASS news agency.

    After investing significant amounts of Russian blood and treasure in propping up the Assad dynasty, Vladimir Putin stood by and watched as it all collapsed.

    No longer a kingmaker or puppeteer, Putin's role in the Assad family's life has been reduced to that of landlord.

    The downfall of Assad is not just embarrassing for Putin, according to experts, but also strategically dangerous.

    These last tumultuous few days likely represent a "catastrophic loss of Russia's significant investment in the Assad regime and Russia's foothold in the Mediterranean," said R Clarke Cooper, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative.

    "The collapse of the Assad regime represents a contraction of Russia's ability to project power in the region — and thus its claim of being a great power."

    Two strategically important Russian military facilities are located in Syria, and their potential loss imperils Putin's ambitions, according to Cooper.

    "Russia may now face losing a warm-water naval base as well as an air base. The damage to Moscow's ability to manoeuvrer in Africa and the Mediterranean may have a strategic impact on Russian influence across the world," he said.

    With the Kremlin's Syria project blown apart, Putin is now coming to terms with the idea that his dreams for the Middle East are likely nothing but dust.

    Putin laid the seeds for his global ambitions in Syria

    Russia's involvement in Syria predates the leadership of Putin and stretches all the way back to before the disintegration of the mighty Soviet Union.

    Sitting between Europe and the Persian Gulf and with direct access to the Mediterranean Sea, Syria is a geographical goldmine to state's looking for influence in the region.

    And in 1971, president Hafez al-Assad's freshly installed government gave the Soviet superpower an opportunity to gain a foothold.

    Moscow offered up aid and weapons to the new regime and in exchange, Russia obtained a lease of the Tartus facility, a port on the west coast of the country, which it used for its naval fleet and commercial trade.

    With Russian warships stationed near the Mediterranean, Moscow achieved two goals: extending its sphere of influence and obtaining a base in which it could counteract the United States fleet in Italy.

    The deep water port would later be deemed by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty as "Russia's greatest strategic and geopolitical interest in Syria".

    But in the 1990s, the fall of the Soviet empire weakened Moscow's hold on Syria and its power in the Middle East.

    Ten years of uncertainty would pass before another dramatic shift in 2000 would herald a new era and a change of management in both countries.

    While Bashar al-Assad sought to position himself as a bulwark against "extremism", Putin took office with one goal in mind: making Russia a superpower once more.

    The Russian president expanded the military, reached a deal with oligarchs to secure their support for his government, and forged strategic relationships with world powers, including Libya.

    But when long-term leader Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown, Putin's ambitions were thrown in disarray.

    He went searching for other allies in the Middle East, and a series of anti-government uprisings across the region in 2011, dubbed the Arab Spring, provided Putin with the perfect chance to swoop in and save Syria's government with an offer of political and military aid.

    Russia's president supplied weapons to the Syrian military and used his veto powers at the United Nations to block resolutions that would have forced Bashar al-Assad to resign.

    Western leaders condemned the move and the security council's inability to reach a consensus.

    "Syria is a stain on the conscience of the security council. I think it is the biggest failure in recent years, and it undoubtedly has consequences for the standing of the security council and indeed the United Nations as a whole," said then British ambassador Matthew Rycroft.

    Putin was undeterred and in 2015, he went one step further to solidifying his alliance with Syria by seeking approval from parliament to join the war militarily.

    It was Russia's first conflict outside the borders of the former Soviet Union since the Cold War and sent a clear message to the West that Putin was set on disrupting the global world order.

    In September, Russian warplanes, attack helicopters, tanks, anti-aircraft systems and hundreds of marines arrived in Latakia province and joined the war effort.

    A strategic air base, the Hmeimim facility, was established in Bashar al-Assad's heartland, providing Russia with an air traffic control tower and housing for up to 1,000 personnel.

    As Putin sought to maintain the Assads' grip on power, Moscow began launching air strikes against rebels throughout the country, weakening critical infrastructure and flattening cities.

    The heavy investment in Syria appeared to pay off for both leaders, at a huge cost to the civilian population.

    Bashar al-Assad maintained control of the country while Putin kept his foothold in the region through his two bases.

    The facilities opened up new avenues for Russia to reach into other areas, particularly in Africa, through the transport of military contractors in and out of the country.

    Two leaders now grapple with diminished power

    After more than a decade of civil war and crippling sanctions enacted by the West, Bashar al-Assad's control of the country had weakened in recent months.

    The currency's collapse fuelled hyperinflation, driving customers to a black market which has only further cemented the divide between rich and poor.

    With the economy in tatters, Syria's leader was forced to rely more on his allies, Iran and Russia, for support.

    Tehran funnelled in oil imports, while wheat was shipped in from Russia in an effort to keep the country running.

    But the supply wasn't enough to meet the demands of its population and last year's devastating magnitude-7.8 earthquake only further plunged millions of people into an even more desperate situation.

    This year, the screws on Syria's leadership tightened even more when Russia diverted its troops to its war with Ukraine and Iran became distracted with its brinkmanship with Israel.

    When Syrian rebel groups took control of the capital after a lightning-fast offensive across the country, Bashar al-Assad's only remaining option was to flee.

    As he made a late night dash to Moscow, the West greeted the collapse of his regime with some degree of wariness.

    British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have both released statements expressing hope for the future of the Syrian people.

    While German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Assad's fall was "good news" and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said it showed Russia and its allies "can be defeated".

    But in Moscow, the defeat of a Putin ally has delivered a seismic shock.

    Along with delivering a metaphorical defeat to the Russian leader's global ambitions and hurting its credibility as a reliable security partner, Russia's naval base at Tartus and its air base at Latakia are now at great risk.

    The real question is whether Russia will be able to keep them.

    "The anti-Assad forces that have just prevailed may not be inclined to let them stay — especially since Russian warplanes based in Syria had repeatedly bombed them right up until recently," said Mark N Katz, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Middle East Programs and professor emeritus at the George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government.

    According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Kremlin reportedly secured an agreement on December 8 with unspecified Syrian opposition leaders to ensure the security of its military bases in Syria.

    But it said the "contours of this arrangement and its longevity remain unclear given the volatile and rapidly evolving political situation" on the ground.

    The outcome may depend on how the next few days play out and if a power struggle ensues among the victors in Syria.

    "This may provide Moscow with an opportunity to work with some against others," Professor Katz said.

    In the meantime, Russia's influence in Syria remains at risk.

    "Still, Moscow retaining its naval and air base may not be possible, either because a new Sunni-dominated Syrian government proves to be strong and expels the Russians, or because Syria descends into such chaos that the safety of the bases cannot be maintained," he said.

    The Assad family face an uncertain future as guests of Putin

    As permanent guests of the Kremlin, the Assad family face an uncertain future.

    While Syria's economy went to ruin, the family that ruled the country with an iron fist seems to have enjoyed a lavish lifestyle.

    After the Assads fled, rebels wandered through the abandoned New Shaab Palace in Damascus, finding gold trimmed furniture, marble halls, and an extensive garage stacked with luxury cars.

    In 2022, the US State Department estimated the Assad family was worth up to $US2 billion ($3.13 billion), but acknowledged more "family assets are believed to be spread out and concealed in numerous accounts, real estate portfolios, corporations, and offshore tax havens".

    The family is also accused of laundering "money acquired from illicit economic activities including smuggling, arms trading, drug trafficking, and protection and extortion rackets".

    Bashar al-Assad's wife, Asma, who is reported to be suffering from leukaemia after a previous battle with breast cancer, is said to have fled to Russia late last month.

    She was joined there by her three children, 23-year-old Hafez — who was, until this week seen as the heir apparent to the Assad regime — 21-year-old Zein and 19-year-old Karim.

    It's unclear where they will settle but the Assads will certainly not be the only exiles in Moscow.

    The nouveau riche town of Barvikha, on the city's outskirts, has long been rumoured to be home to a group of ousted leaders who found sanctuary in Putin's Russia.

    Askar Akayev, who served as president of Kyrgyzstan from 1990 until being overthrown in the so-called Tulip Revolution, now reportedly lives there.

    So too does Aslan Abashidze, the ex leader of the Ajarian Autonomous Republic in western Georgia, who was deposed in the Rose Revolution in 2004.

    Mirjana Markovic, the wife of alleged Serbian war criminal Slobodan Miloševic, found sanctuary in Barvikha until her death in 2019.

    And according to Ukrainian officials, ex-president Viktor Yanukovych bought a $52 million mansion in the town after he was ousted in 2014.

    If the rumours are true, the Assads might find understanding neighbours in Barvikha.


    ABC




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