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29 Apr 2025 11:05
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  •   Home > News > International

    Donald Trump isn't on the ballot in Canada's election but he's influencing the vote

    Canadians are at the polls, with the ruling Liberal Party favoured to stay in power after an extraordinary surge in support following Donald Trump's return to the US presidency.


    Canadians are voting in an election that is widely considered to be a measure of the nation's sentiment towards the leader of its southern neighbour, Donald Trump.

    Voting will close shortly, and results will start to roll in, showing the accuracy of the polls that suggested the Liberal incumbents were likely to be re-elected, even though only a few months ago it was looking like Canada was ready for major change.

    After more than nine years in office, then prime minister Justin Trudeau was deeply unpopular, and his Liberal Party was racked with infighting.

    Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre had effectively tapped into deep public discontent about the cost of living, housing, and immigration.

    It appeared he would romp home in the election scheduled for 2025.

    Then Mr Trump took back control of the US presidency — and up-ended not only the executive branch of the American government but completely reshaped the political race in America's northern neighbour.

    Even on polling day, Mr Trump was posting online about his desire to turn Canada into a US state — prompting Mr Poilievre to tell the president to "stay out of our election".

    But Mr Trump's taunts, threats, and imposition of massive economic tariffs have already been the catalyst for a remarkable change in fortune for Canada's ruling party — and may present him with a savvy and well-respected political opponent just across the border.

    A blood sport plays out

    It's play-off season for Canada's national obsession — hockey.

    One of the series was billed as the "Battle of Ontario" because it involved teams from Canada's most populous province.

    About 20,000 spectators packed into the arena in Canada's capital.

    Many of them will be hoping the hometown team can keep the contest alive, as rivals Toronto already have three wins in a best-of-seven series.

    Among the crowd, there are mixed feelings about the political contest soon to be decided, though almost all agree Mr Trump has had an outsized impact.

    Jenny Brown was at the game with her husband, Mark.

    She said Mr Trump was threatening Canada's sovereignty and that her country needed a strong leader capable of standing up to him.

    "I don't know if he would look to invade, but he's definitely looking to attack our economic sovereignty," she said.

    "He would like to weaken us so much that we then feel like we need to join them to save our own souls.

    "It's not so much that I'm afraid tanks are going to come across the border, but I do think that his methods are economic in nature."

    She said Prime Minister Mark Carney, who previously served as head of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, has a "strong resume".

    She's feeling much better about Mr Carney's Liberal Party's chances than she was back in December.

    Her husband, Mark, said Mr Trump's repeated attacks on Canada have caused its citizens to rally behind their country.

    "When the US president speaks, you have to listen, and some of the things that he said are just very anti-Canadian," he said.

    "Whether you're red or blue in Canada, I think we can all get behind the same thing — that we are Canadian."

    During Mr Trump's first administration, there were pockets of tension between the US and Canada, particularly around trade.

    Mr Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian goods while renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement.

    But his taunting and threatening have shifted into an even higher gear early in his second term.

    When Mr Trump first publicly suggested Canada should become a US state, soon after securing his second victory, most took it as a joke — including Mr Trudeau.

    But the number of times he's repeated it, combined with his willingness to hurt Canada with large tariffs, meant Canadians started taking him seriously.

    By the time that happened, Mr Trudeau had already announced his resignation as leader.

    It's been Mr Carney who has benefited most from Canadians' unhappiness with Mr Trump's treatment of the country.

    A tightrope for Poilievre

    It's been tricky for opposition Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to capitalise.

    Long taunted by political opponents as "Maple Syrup MAGA" or a "mini-Trump", he's been trying to walk a political tightrope.

    He knows some of the core Conservative base remain pro-Trump, and going too hard against him could risk alienating them.

    Mr Poilievre is also more closely politically aligned with Mr Trump's values than Mr Carney.

    He has campaigned on major crossover themes, including a crackdown on crime, backing out of policies designed to confront climate change, and criticising "woke ideology".

    His criticisms of Mr Trump have therefore been more measured than Mr Carney's, though he has called the tariffs on Canadian products "massive, unjust, and unjustified".

    As polls opened on Monday, local time, Mr Trump used social media to encourage Canadians to elect someone to turn Canada into the 51st state of America. Mr Poilievre responded: "President Trump, stay out of our election."

    Ken Gibson, who attended the hockey game with his wife Sheila, was still hoping the Conservatives could pull off a victory despite polls showing the Liberals, and Mr Carney, likely to win.

    "We've had 10 years of a Liberal government that's got us deeply in debt. Our kids can't afford a home. Cost of living has gone through the roof," he said.

    "We need a change — and we need it quickly."

    But he also acknowledged Mr Trump has changed the race in the minds of many Canadians.

    "Unfortunately, we've lost total trust in the United States," he said.

    His wife Sheila agrees — and thinks Mr Trump genuinely has designs on Canada.

    "I think we're offended that he wants to take over Canada, which I really think he does, because we've got the natural resources and whatnot," she said.

    "I think we just know that we can't trust him, and it's too bad."

    The bar scene

    The anti-American sentiment has been playing out outside politics too.

    Publican Scott May has stripped American liquors from his bar in downtown Ottawa.

    "It was a very easy decision to pull all of the American bourbon out," he said, referring to American whiskey.

    "We're making all our old fashioned [cocktails] with Canadian rye instead. An easy decision to make."

    He says customers are fully supportive of the move — though it remains to be seen how long the acrimony will last.

    "Most Canadians recognise that it's not Americans per se who are the issue. It's one American who's responsible for it," he said.

    "So I suspect when the comeuppance happens in three-and-a-half years — or sooner — maybe all will be forgiven and we'll go back to normal."

    Mr Trump has been relatively circumspect about the Canadian election of late.

    His tone towards Mr Carney has been noticeably different from how he treated Mr Trudeau — now paying him the respect of calling him "prime minister" rather than the derisive "governor" he used for Mr Trudeau.

    While the Liberals are feeling confident heading into the home straight, it's by no means a certainty they'll win a majority government.

    It'll be a closely watched race — and leaders around the world will be watching to see what lessons can be learnt.

    Is an anti-Trump message a domestic political winner?

    © 2025 ABC Australian Broadcasting Corporation. All rights reserved

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