Putin is testing how far he can push Trump by not turning up for Istanbul talks

Over three years after Russia invaded Ukraine, the countries are finally meeting for direct peace talks in Istanbul. Vladimir Putin will be not be attending.

Ironically, given his no-show, it was Putin who suggested the peace talks instead of immediately agreeing to a proposed 30-day ceasefire. But like Russia’s 2024 presidential elections, from the outside the peace talks appear to be a total farce. Putin is not just stringing the international community along, he is also testing his “friendship” with the US president, Donald Trump.

Trump ran on a platform that he would he end the war in Ukraine quickly (in 24 hours), arguing that he was the only one with the gravitas and strength to handle the Russian leader. Yet Putin has repeatedly ignored Trump’s warnings.

Two days after Trump was inaugurated, the US president posted that new sanctions would be imposed on Russia if the conflict did not end quickly. Then in early and late March, Trump again threatened sanctions if there was no ceasefire. Most recently, on May 8, Trump called for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, warning that violations would be met with sanctions.

Putin disregarded every threat, and Trump did nothing to follow through. The pattern seems to be repeating itself.

Now, Trump is trying to save face by claiming that peace talks are only possible if he and Putin meet in person. If that was the case, why didn’t Trump himself attend? He was only a four-hour plane flight away, making billion dollar deals in the Gulf. But as recently as Thursday, Trump floated the idea that he would only attend if “something happened”.

Given how important these peace talks should be, it’s odd that there’s so much confusion about why Putin and Trump are not attending. US special envoy Keith Kellogg stated that if Putin had attended, Trump would be there. Trump, meanwhile, has framed Putin’s snub the other way around, claiming the only reason Putin did not attend was because he was not there.

Meanwhile, Europeans had warned Putin that if he did not attend and the talks failed to produce a ceasefire, he would face tougher sanctions. But Putin was never going to attend these peace talks even as his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, goaded him to do so by arriving in Ankara a few days ahead of time.

What could still happen?

Representatives from the Turkish, Ukrainian and American delegations were due to meet on the morning of May 16, followed by a session with Russia. Reportedly, Turkey is doing everything it can to get the two sides in the same room.

But hopes are not high for any breakthrough. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said he has no expectations, and Zelensky believes Russia is not serious about achieving anything at these talks.

Though Putin was the one who suggested the peace talks “without preconditions”, he has sent a low-level delegation. Zelensksy promised to attend if Putin did, but has interpreted the Russian president’s absence as a sign of disrespect.

Given this backdrop, what can be achieved? Putin has sent his aide (and former minister of culture) Vladimir Medinsky, who Zelensky describes as a “theatre prop”. In Zelensky’s place, the Ukrainian delegation is led by Kyiv’s defence minister, Rustem Umerov.

Umerov has an impossible task, but will be trying to use the peace talks to take the first steps towards de-escalation. The only real winner in these talks is Turkey, which is playing a much bigger role than expected on the international stage as a power broker and mediator, since Putin didn’t come. Turkey also has good relationships with both Putin and Zelensky.

It’s certainly hard to take peace talks seriously when there is an awkward back-and-forth just about who is going to attend. And while Trump thinks peace is only possible through bilateral meetings between himself and Putin, it’s clear he can’t even influence Putin to show up to peace talks that the Russian president himself suggested.

This should give the world little confidence that Putin will agree to a 30-day ceasefire, Ukraine’s main proposal, let alone ever agree to any wider concessions. What’s not clear is what Trump is going to do about it.

Natasha Lindstaedt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.