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30 Jul 2025 10:02
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  •   Home > News > International

    Concerns Thai-Cambodia ceasefire may not stop fighting, as displaced residents fear going home

    Displaced residents on Cambodia's north-western border with Thailand say they are hesitant to return home, a day after the nations agreed to an immediate ceasefire to end days of intense fighting.


    On Cambodia's north-western border with Thailand, some displaced residents staying in makeshift shelters are still waiting to head home despite the signing of a ceasefire that mostly stopped five days of intense clashes between the two countries.

    At least 38 people, mostly civilians, were killed and more than 300,000 people displaced during the fighting.

    The two neighbours agreed to an "immediate and unconditional" ceasefire at a meeting in Malaysia on Monday, effective from midnight.

    The peace talks came after a sustained push by Malaysian Premier Anwar Ibrahim and US President Donald Trump, with the latter warning Thai and Cambodian leaders that trade negotiations would not progress if fighting continued.

    Although Thailand's military said there had been attacks by Cambodian troops in at least five locations early on Tuesday, violating the ceasefire that had come into effect from midnight, commanders from both sides met and held talks, a Thai army spokesperson said.

    Cambodia denied the charge, insisting that its troops had strictly abided by the ceasefire since midnight and continued to uphold it, according to a statement by Defence Minister Tea Seiha.

    At the refugee camp, residents were still wary.

    "I really wanted to return home but I dare not go now yet," said Seun Ruot, a 47-year-old housewife.

    "I'd rather wait until later today or tomorrow to see what the situation looks like."

    A 'decent chance' of more violence

    Greg Raymond, from the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at ANU's Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, said there was a "decent chance" there would be more clashes on the border, which follows a tall escarpment.

    Dr Raymond said the previous border conflict between 2008 and 2011 was marked by a pattern of violence punctuated by agreements and ceasefires followed by more shooting.

    "I think the most we can be is cautiously optimistic," he said.

    Lowy Institute South-East Asia program director Susannah Patton agreed that more fighting was likely.

    Ms Patton said the ceasefire was brought about by international pressure from a range of sources, including from within ASEAN, as well as the US and China.

    However, the leaders of Thailand and Cambodia were under strong domestic pressure from their fiercely nationalistic populations not to appear weak or to be making concessions to the other side, Ms Patton said.

    "It's definitely positive that there is a ceasefire, but I'm not too confident about whether or not it will hold simply because I think there are still going to be incentives for both sides to continue this conflict, albeit at a low level," she said.

    "I don't think either side is willing to escalate it to become a major war, but I think if we look also at the pattern of how things unfolded in 2008 to 2011, it did drag on for quite some time there."

    One of the measures proposed during the ceasefire negotiations was independent international observers.

    However, Dr Raymond said this was unlikely to be acceptable to Thailand — or at least its politically powerful military.

    "Thailand has a track record of not really allowing these sorts of situations to be internationalised," he said.

    "It didn't allow peacekeepers in, even though their foreign minister had agreed, in 2011 — the Thai military refused to implement that.

    "So, I think there's still some way to go before we actually see that happen."

    Back to the status quo?

    The decades-long border dispute between the two South-East Asian neighbours has been escalating since late May, when a Cambodian soldier was killed in a skirmish and both countries began reinforcing troops along their 800-kilometre border.

    Both sides accused the other of starting last week's fighting.

    Ms Patton said the situation on the ground at the border remained unclear.

    "So, there isn't good reporting on whether either side has made sort of important tactical gains, but I think the assumption is that no, there hasn't been a lot achieved by either side," she said.

    Dr Raymond said that following the flurry of violence — which included shelling and Thai jets launching air strikes — it appeared to be "back to the status quo".

    He said it appeared some of the infrastructure had been destroyed around Preah Vihear — a significant Cambodian-controlled temple on top of the escarpment — and the temple itself had also suffered some damage.

    "If anything, I think Cambodia may be in a slightly worse position than it was," he said.

    ABC/Reuters


    ABC




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