The drop in inflation has taken analysts by surprise

The Consumer Price Index fell half a percent in the last quarter.

ASB says that's less that it expected - and less than the Reserve Bank anticipated.

The Bank's economist expects annual inflation to dip close to zero over the coming year, and the Reserve Bank must remain vigilant about deflation risks.

But now they say it appears the economy has recovered from lockdown faster than expected.

The say the key is how well it holds up over the year.