The stakes are high as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump face off in the race to the White House. Here's where the race will be decided.
To secure the presidency, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump needs to win the majority of votes in the US electoral college.
There are 538 electoral college votes, so whoever reaches 270 wins.
(Or they're tied at 269 each, but for all our sakes let's not focus on that right now…)
This map takes the shape of the United States and tweaks it a bit to show how many votes each state has in the electoral college.
Each hexagon is one vote.
Most states tend to vote fairly predictably from election to election, providing a stable base of likely electoral college votes for both Harris and Trump.
Let's take a look.
First off, here are all the parts of the country regarded as solid Trump states, based on ratings from the independent experts at Cook Political Report.
And now in a lighter shade we'll add the states it ranks as likely for Trump.
It's not enough to get him to that crucial 270 number, but he's well on his way.
Now let's do the same thing for Harris, adding her solid states in dark blue.
Plus, in a lighter shade, those where Harris is rated likely to win.
So Harris too is short of the magic 270 — and the election hangs in the balance.
Let's fade those coloured-in parts of the country to bring into focus the seven toss-up states, where the candidates are essentially neck-and-neck.
It might help to think of them like this…
Three in the north-east:
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
- Pennsylvania
Three in what's sometimes called the "sun belt" running across the south:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- North Carolina
And one in the west:
Barring any big surprises, this is where the presidential race will be decided.
Harris's most straightforward path to victory comes through the states in the north-east — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
They're sometimes called the "blue wall" because if Democrats can win all of them, they're close to assured of winning the election.
In 2020, Joe Biden won all three with slim margins, and polling suggests it will be another very tight race this year.
Both parties have focused a good deal of their campaigns on these states.
If Harris can hold onto the blue wall and avoid any surprises elsewhere, she'll scrape in a victory with precisely 270 electoral college votes
… even if Trump claims every other battleground state.
But Trump also has a history of success at toppling the blue wall.
He might have lost them to Biden in 2020, but he won all three to seize victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
If Trump ekes out wins in the south and the west, he only needs to win one north-eastern state.
Even taking the smallest of the three blue wall states, Wisconsin, would be enough to return him to the White House.
And polling suggests he's well and truly in the running in all three.
Michigan is home to one of the country's largest populations of Arab Americans, who traditionally vote largely for the Democrats.
But their anger over Biden's largely unwavering support for Israel's brutal campaign in Gaza has put that advantage in doubt, helping make it another possible tipping point for Trump.
What do the polls tell us about Trump and Harris's chances?
Of course, these are just a few of the scenarios for a Trump or Harris victory.
With seven states in the balance, there are more than a dozen possible final combinations that could flip the election one way or the other.
The New York Times and political website 538 keep track of polls around the country, averaging all their results in an attempt to come up with a more accurate picture than any single poll can provide.
Here's what the outcome would look like if those polling averages are perfectly accurate — right down to the decimal point.
Trump would win, with 287 to 251 electoral college votes.
On the other hand, here's what the outcome of the election would be if the final New York Times and Siena poll of the campaign is accurate.
It paints a very different picture of the outcome — with Trump and Harris splitting the "blue wall" states and the southern "sun belt" states between them.
Crucially, the NYT/Siena poll rates Pennsylvania as "even". The race is so close, it can't split the candidates.
But even with that unresolved, Harris would squeak over the line.
But here's the thing.
All polls have a margin of error, and realistically the overall race — and the individual races in the key states — are too close to call.
It's effectively a dead heat in the polls.
However, that doesn't mean it'll be a dead heat on the day.
If there's a polling error similar to those seen in 2020 — when Trump significantly outperformed the polls (but lost) — then he would sweep all of the swing states for a comprehensive victory.
On the flip side, if there's a polling error similar to that in key Senate races in 2022 — when Democrat candidates outperformed — it'll be an historic win for Harris.
And let's take that uncertainty one step further.
One crucial poll released days out from the election shows Harris winning Iowa — which is outside the group of crucial toss-up states.
In fact, it's rated by Cook Political Report as "solid" for Trump.
As ever, we need to be careful about reading too much into any single poll.
But if this one proves prescient (as it has before), then it'll reshape the map — and the election.
And Iowa is just one possible example.
The race is so tight that only a fool would rule out the chances of a shock result coming from outside the key swing states.
Is a tie possible?
There is a total of 538 electoral college votes up for grabs, meaning it's possible both candidates could end up with an equal split.
Here's one way a draw could play out.
If a tie happens, it will be up to the House of Representatives to decide who wins the presidency.
Trump is a clear favourite in that scenario because each state delegation gets one vote and at the moment, Republicans are in control.
There's only ever been one tie in US history, between Thomas Jefferson and Johns Adams in 1800. (Jefferson famously became president.)
In 2024, the first states are expected to be called for Harris and Trump on Wednesday morning.
If the election is as tight as predicted, it could be days before the winner is known.
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