An economist doesn't believe the Reserve Bank will actually raise interest rates -- despite it saying it may need to

It's held the Official Cash Rate at 5.5 percent -- and its forecast track suggests no rate cuts on the horizon until mid-2025.

Independent economist Tony Alexander says he thinks that's just a threat.

He says the Reserve Bank hasn't allowed for El Nino -- which will hit farming sector incomes -- and hasn't allowed for fiscal tightening from the government, which doesn't seem correct.