Oasis: expert explains the formula for a successful band reunion – and why some crash and burn

The worst-kept secret in the music world is out: Oasis are back. And the only real surprise is that it’s taken so long for it to happen. Since there have been bands, bands have been breaking up. And since bands have been breaking up, bands have been reforming.

Some have led to creative rebirths (Blur, Pixies, Blondie). Others have been disappointing (The Velvet Underground, Outkast, Kiss).

Some bands, like The Go-Go’s have broken up and reformed so many times that it’s hard to keep count. Some split and get back together before anyone knows they’ve even separated, like The Verve, who separated with no intention of reforming in 1995 but were back in the studio only weeks later.

And some take decades to get back together, like the 60s band The Hustlers, who reformed 50 years after splitting upon discovering they had been misinformed about the death of their drummer.

But most reunions have simply led to healthy bank balances for the artists and a chance to relive the good old days for the fans.

For boy or girl bands, breaking up and reuniting is a pretty straightforward process, honed to perfection over the years by Take That, Boyzone, Steps, Girls Aloud, 5ive, Blue, Spice Girls, All Saints, Busted and the Sugababes (and with Little Mix, One Direction, and Fifth Harmony currently midway through the process). The formula is simple.

1. A band’s success starts to wane.

2. The most popular member – let’s call them band member A – thinks (or is told) they can do better on their own and leaves to begin a solo career.

3. Band member A’s first single does well, and the band they’ve left (if they’ve decided to carry on) also have success with their next release as fans rally round the remaining members.

4. The rest of the band embark on solo careers, each of which is less successful than the last.

5. Band member A soldiers on with diminishing returns as the rest of the band respectively dance on ice; act in soap operas, or go and do something in LA.

6. Following years of dwindling sales for band member A, and high profile divorces, lawsuits or bankruptcies for the rest (and possibly band member A as well), the band announce they are reforming. Not because of their faltering individual popularity or the need to finance those divorces, lawsuits or bankruptcies, but “for the fans”. A nation celebrates, and the tabloids report that Ticketmaster has crashed due to the number of people wanting tickets to the comeback gigs.

7. Repeat as necessary depending on upcoming anniversaries and TikTok trends.

When are you getting back together?

Society and the media alike have long been obsessed with legacy acts, comebacks and reunion tours. The Beatles fielded the “when are you getting back together” question so often that it became a running joke in interviews.

Pink Floyd’s Roger Waters and David Gilmour are still being asked four decades since Waters left the group, and, until August 27, Liam and Noel Gallagher had been similarly bombarded since Oasis’s split in 2009.

The only official statement to emerge so far from Oasis HQ appeared on the Gallaghers’ social media channels where they said: “The guns have fallen silent. The stars have aligned. The great wait is over. Come see. It will not be televised.” But in the coming weeks and months we will probably hear things about “unfinished business” or it being “the right time”.

Or perhaps they’ll do a John Lydon, who declared before the Sex Pistols’ 1996 reunion that, although the band still hated each other “with a vengeance”, they had “found a common cause, and that’s your money”.

Maybe they’ll even point to the fact that each of Liam Gallagher’s solo albums has spent less time on the album charts than the one before it. Or that Noel Gallagher’s High Flying Birds albums have done exactly the same thing.

Or that Noel’s latest, Council Skies, is his first album to miss out on the number one spot and exited the charts altogether after eight weeks (compared with the band’s self-titled debut, which hung around for well over a year).

Whatever the reason for their return, Oasis fans won’t care. To them, it’s not the why that’s important, but the fact it’s happening. Time will tell if the reuniting of the brothers Gallagher is going to taint their legacy or enhance it.

And it may well be, as with The Verve, Sex Pistols and The Velvet Underground that even after reforming, the issues that caused the breakup in the first place will resurface and finish them off once and for all.

The knives are already out in the media, with detractors predicting a disaster, but let’s not forget the Telegraph piece from last year, which urged Blur not to get back together as “reunions are always terrible” only for the same newspaper to later call their comeback a triumph. Oasis fans will have their fingers crossed that the brothers Gallagher can pull it off too – and keep their newly rekindled relationship intact.

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Glenn Fosbraey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.